基于大数据的典型城市轻型客车行驶里程特征研究  

Study on the Characteristics of Light Duty Vehicle Kilometers Traveled in Typical Cities Based on Big Data Analysis

作　　者：马冬[1,2] 高隽 刘敏[2] 王宏丽[1] 吴潇萌 张少君[2] MA Dong;GAO Jun;LIU Min;WANG Hongli;WU Xiaomeng;ZHANG Shaojun(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Vehicle Emission Control and Simulation,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院,国家环境保护机动车污染控制与模拟重点实验室,北京100012 [2]清华大学环境学院,北京100084

出　　处：《交通节能与环保》2021年第6期20-26,共7页Transport Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0212100,2018YFE0106800)。

摘　　要：机动车行驶里程(VKT)是影响排放清单结果的重要参数之一,对排放清单的准确性具有重要影响。为科学准确评估机动车排放水平,获得不同车型的年均VKT数据,选取了2017年中国6个典型城市418.3万条轻型客车有效年检行驶里程数据,通过统计分析,获取了小型客车、出租车等典型车型行驶里程特征。结果表明,小型客车车龄约为10年,与总行驶里程之间具有较好的线性相关性,年均行驶里程约为1.2万km,随车龄变化不大;出租车车龄约为6年,与总行驶里程之间也具有较好的线性相关性,年均行驶里程约为10.0万km,随车龄变化缓慢下降。随着高铁和城市轨道交通的发展及城市车辆限行政策的实施,小型客车、出租车年均行驶里程总体下降,与清单指南相比分别下降33.3%和16.7%。建议通过大数据分析方法对当地机动车年检数据进行统计分析,从而获得不同车型的年均VKT数据,适时修订《道路机动车大气污染物排放清单编制技术指南(试行)》,为科学准确评估机动车排放水平提供重要的数据参考。Vehicle Kilometers of Travel(VKT)is one of the important parameters that affect the results of emission inventory,and it has an important influence on the accuracy of emission inventory.In order to scientifically and accurately evaluate vehicle emission levels and obtain the average annual VKT data of different vehicle types,the valid annual inspection mileage data of 4.183 million light passenger cars in 6 typical cities of China in 2017 were selected.Through statistical analysis,the mileage characteristics of typical vehicle types such as passenger cars and taxis were obtained.The results show that the age of the passenger cars is about 10 years,which has a good linear correlation with the total driving distance.The average annual driving distance is about 12000 km,and the age of the passenger cars does not change much.The age of the taxis is about 6 years,which has a good linear correlation with the total mileage.The average annual mileage is about 100000 km,and the variation of the age of the taxi decreases slowly.With the development of high-speed rail and urban rail transit and the implementation of the policy of restricting urban vehicles,the average annual mileage of passenger cars and taxis decreased by 33.3%and 16.7%,respectively,compared with the technical guide.It is suggested to conduct statistical analysis on the annual inspection data of local vehicles through big data analysis method,so as to obtain the annual average VKT data of different vehicle types,timely revise the Technical Guide for Compiling The Air Pollutant Emission Inventory of Road Motor Vehicles(Trial),and provide important data reference for the scientific and accurate evaluation of motor vehicle emission level.

关 键 词：城市交通 行驶里程 大数据 轻型客车 活动水平 

分 类 号：U469.1[机械工程—车辆工程]