人口结构转变对农业种植结构调整的影响  

The Influence of Population Structure Transformation on Agricultural Planting Structure Adjustment

作　　者：罗富民[1] LUO Fumin(School of Economics and Management,Leshan Normal College,Leshan 614000,China)

机构地区：[1]乐山师范学院经济管理学院,四川乐山614000

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第2期60-65,共6页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)

基　　金：四川省教育厅项目“人口结构转变中的农业供给侧结构性改革研究”(18SB0221)。

摘　　要：文章探讨人口结构的老龄化、城镇化和高学历化转变对农业种植结构调整的影响机理,并基于动态面板数据模型进行计量分析。研究表明,人口的城镇化虽然理论上可能导致农业种植结构的“去粮化”,但由于农业经营主体结构和农户兼业经营的限制,使得人口的城镇化反而加大了粮食作物种植面积。而人口老龄化会促进农业种植结构的“趋粮化”,人口高学历化会抑制农业种植结构的“趋粮化”。This paper discusses the influence mechanism of population structure aging,urbanization and higher education transformation on the adjustment of agricultural planting structure,and makes an econometric analysis based on the dynamic panel data model.The results show that although the urbanization of population may theoretically lead to the“de grain”of agricultural planting structure,the urbanization of population increases the planting area of grain crops due to the limitation of agricultural management subject structure and farmers’part-time operation.The aging population will promote the“grain-orientationt”of agricultural planting structure,and the population with higher education will inhibit the“grain-orientationt”of agricultural planting structure.

关 键 词：人口结构 种植结构 影响机理 动态面板数据模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]