猪肉价格与CPI波动的疫情冲击异质效应统计检验  

Statistical Test of Heterogeneous Effect of Epidemic Shock on Pork Price and CPI Fluctuation

作　　者：石自忠[1] 周慧[1] 胡向东[1] Shi Zizhong;Zhou Hui;Hu Xiangdong(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《统计与决策》2021年第23期49-53,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(161005202001-4-3);国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFD0501105);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2020-01)。

摘　　要：文章基于2009年2月至2020年4月的生猪疫情指数、猪肉价格和CPI,借助分位数向量自回归(QVAR)模型,实证研究非洲猪瘟等生猪疫情冲击对猪肉价格和CPI影响的异质效应。结果表明:非洲猪瘟等疫情冲击对猪肉价格和CPI的影响具有明显异质性,具体表现为随着CPI分位数水平的提升,猪肉价格和CPI所受影响呈现下滑态势,随着猪肉价格分位数水平的提升,两者所受影响呈现上升态势;疫情冲击总体上推动猪肉价格和CPI上涨,对猪肉价格的影响相对更大,CPI所受影响明显更小;疫情冲击对猪肉价格和CPI的影响持续时间均较长,至少在20个月之后才开始趋于平稳,最长时间可达到30个月。Based on the hog epidemic index,pork price and CPI from February 2009 to April 2020,this paper uses quantile vector autoregression(QVAR)model to empirically study the heterogeneous effects of African swine fever(ASF)and other hog epidemic shocks on pork price and CPI.The results are shown as follows:The impacts of ASF and other epidemic shocks on pork price and CPI have obvious heterogeneity.Specifically,with the increase of CPI quantile level,the impacts of pork price and CPI present a downward trend,and with the increase of pork price quantile level,the impacts of pork price and CPI show an upward trend.The impact of the epidemic has generally pushed up pork prices and CPI,with a relatively greater impact on pork prices and a significantly smaller impact on CPI.The impact of the epidemic on pork prices and CPI lasts for a long time,starting to level off after at least 20 months and up to 30 months.

关 键 词：非洲猪瘟 疫情冲击 猪肉价格 CPI QVAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]