气候变化情景下长序榆在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of potential suitable area of Ulmus elongata in China under climate change scenarios

作　　者：张明珠 叶兴状 李佳慧 刘益鹏 陈世品[1] 刘宝[1] ZHANG Ming-zhu;YE Xing-zhuang;LI Jia-hui;LIU Yi-peng;CHEN Shi-pin;LIU Bao(College of Forestry,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学林学院,福州350002

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2021年第12期3822-3835,共14页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：第二次全国重点保护野生植物资源调查与研究(KH140126A);国家林业与草原局科技计划项目(KJZXSA2018008)资助;。

摘　　要：长序榆(Ulmus elongata)是我国重点保护珍稀濒危植物,具有重要的科研与经济价值,但受自然及人为等因素影响,现有野生植株少且分布零星。植物地理分布受到气候变化的深刻影响。本研究旨在准确理解并揭示气候变化对长序榆分布的影响,为长序榆天然资源的保护与引种栽培提供理论依据。以长序榆在国内的42个天然分布点和16个环境因子数据为基础,利用MaxEnt优化模型和地理信息系统共同构建其适生区分布模型,探讨影响长序榆潜在适生区分布的重要环境因子,同时预测长序榆在末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、全新世中期、当代以及2041—2060年(2050s)和2061—2080年(2070s)里RCP2.6、RCP8.5气候情景下的适生区分布范围与面积。结果显示:当特征组合FC=HPT(H:二次型Hinge;P:乘积型Product;T:阈值型Threshold),调控倍频RM=2时,模型预测准确,预测分布范围与现实分布相符。综合评估显示,最干月降水量、年降水量、海拔、表层土壤pH、最冷月最低气温、最热月最高气温对长序榆潜在地理分布变迁起着重要作用。在RCP2.6气候情景下,增温控制在2℃内可能为长序榆提供一个更适宜的生长环境;在RCP8.5气候情景下,长序榆质心从当代到2070s有从低纬向高纬迁移的趋势。Ulmus elongatais one of the key rare and endangered species in China,with important scientific and economic values.Due to natural and anthropogenic disturbances,the natural resource ofU.elongatais rare and scattered.The geographical distribution of plants is profoundly affected by climate change.In this study,we modeled the impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution ofU.elongatain order to provide theoretical basis for the natural resource protection and introduction of this species.Based on the data of 42 natural distribution sites ofU.elongatain China and 16 environmental factors,the MaxEnt optimization model and geographic information system were used to construct the suitable distribution model.We analyzed the key environmental factors affecting the potential suitable distribution ofU.elongataand predicted the potential distribution area during the last interglacial,last glacial maximum,mid-Holocene,current and the climate scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the future 2050 s(2041-2060)and2070 s(2061-2080).Our results showed that the model was accurate and the predicted distribution range was consistent with the actual distribution when the feature combination(FC)was HPT(H:Hinge,P:Product,T:Threshold)and the regularization multiplier(RM)was 2.A comprehensive evaluation showed that precipitation in the driest month,annual precipitation,elevation,topsoil pH,minimum temperature of coldest month and maximum temperature of warmest month played important roles in the potential geographical distribution ofU.elongata.Under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario,the increased temperature within 2℃may provide a more suitable environment forU.elongata.Under the RCP 8.5 climate scenario,the centroid ofU.elongata distribution will migrate from low latitude to high latitude from current to 2070 s.

关 键 词：长序榆 MaxEnt优化模型 适生区预测 ENMeval 气候变化 

分 类 号：S792.19[农业科学—林木遗传育种]