四川省2526例新型冠状病毒肺炎疑似病例及其转归情况分析  

A Retrospective Study on 2526 Suspected Cases of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province

作　　者：刘润友[1] 尚婧晔[1] 袁珩[1] 吕强[1] 刘阳[1] 王卓[1] 吴先萍[1] 钟波[1] LIU Runyou;SHANG Jingye;YUAN Heng;LV Qiang;LIU Yang;WANG Zhuo;WU Xianping;ZHONG Bo(Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省疾病预防控制中心,成都610041

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2021年第12期1615-1620,1625,共7页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:82041033);四川省新冠科技攻关应急项目(项目编号:2020YFS0015)。

摘　　要：目的分析四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎疑似病例报告流行病学特征、确诊情况及影响因素,为防控策略提供参考。方法2020-01-16/03-03,四川省新型冠状病毒肺炎疑似病例及转为确诊病例数据来源于"传染病报告信息管理系统",采用描述性流行病学研究,使用Excel 2007、Arc GIS和SPSS 21.0软件对数据进行整理、制图和检验,分析方法有卡方、趋势卡方检验及多因素Logistic回归。结果2020-01-16/03-03,四川省共报告新冠肺炎病毒疑似病例2526例,时间集中在01-25/02-14,占总数的87.85%(2219/2526);地区分布以成都市为主,占57.28%(1447/2526),其次为川东南充市和达州市;疑似病例平均年龄为37岁,职业以农民和工人(737例,占29.18%)为主,24.11%(609/2526)的疑似病例发病前14 d有湖北省旅居史。共确诊376例,占全省确诊病例总数(538例)的69.89%,确诊率为14.89%,且随时间呈下降趋势(χ^(2)=136.788,P<0.01);确诊率较高的地区为自贡市、攀枝花市、甘孜州和绵阳市,均为50%以上;疑似病例从报告到确诊时间间隔中位数为29.03 h,随着防控实施方案更新疑似病例确诊率呈下降趋势(χ^(2)=158.261,P<0.01),且确诊时间间隔越来越短。多因素分析结果显示年龄(OR=1.032,P<0.01)和湖北省旅居史(OR=3.957,P<0.01)是疑似病例确诊的风险因素,发病前14 d曾有湖北旅居史的疑似病例确诊风险较无省外旅居史高3.96倍。结论病例定义是影响疑似病例确诊的重要因素,有湖北旅居史、年龄越大疑似病例确诊率更高。Objective To describe the epidemiologic features,analyze the confirmation and influencing factors of the suspected cases of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province in 2020 aiming to provide a reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for this disease.Methods Data of suspected cases and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the study were obtained from the daily backup of the National Notifiable Disease Report System(NNDRS).Descriptive statistics were performed.Excel,Arc GIS and SPSS 21.0 software were applied to clear up data,draw the map and statistical analysis.Results A total of 2526 suspected cases were reported in Sichuan province from January 16 to March 3.Most of cases were reported from January 25th to February 14;,accounted for 87.85%of the total suspected cases(2219/2526).The majority of the suspected cases(accounted for 57.28%,1447/2526)were reported from the city of Chengdu in central Sichuan,followed by Nanchong city and Dazhou city in the eastern.The average age of the suspected cases was 37 years,and the main occupation of the cases was farmers and workers(737 cases,accounting for 29.18%).Notably,24.11%(609/2526)cases had ever lived or travelled in Hubei province within 14 days before the COVID-19 onset.Totally,376 suspected cases were confirmed until March 3,2020,accounting for 69.89%of the confirmed cases in Sichuan province.The confirmation rate was 14.89%and decreased over time(χ^(2)=136.788,P<0.01).We found that the confirmation rate weas above 50%in Zigong,Panzhihua,Ganzi and Mianyang.The median interval time from reporting suspected cases to confirmed cases was 29.03 hours.However,after the update of the protocol for prevention and control of COVID-19,the confirmation rate was getting lower(χ^(2)=158.261,P<0.01)and the interval was getting shorter.Multivariate analysis showed that age(odds ratio=1.032,P<0.01)and exposed in Hubei province(odds ratio=3.957,P<0.01)were the risk factors of confirmation of suspected cases.Conclusion Case definition was an important factor affecting the c

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 疑似病例 影响因素 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]