高校宿舍楼火灾事件发生概率研究  

Research on probability of fire incidents in dormitory buildings

作　　者：冀佳惠 张英华[1,2] 高玉坤 于洪霞[1,2] 张益 Ji Jiahui;Zhang Yinghua;Gao Yukun;Yu Hongxia;Zhang Yi(State Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Mining and Safety of Metal Mines of University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083;Mine Emergency Technology Research Center of University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学矿山避险技术研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《今日消防》2021年第12期7-10,共4页

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助(2018YFC0810600)。

摘　　要：高校宿舍作为人员密集场所,火灾安全隐患多,救援难度大,极易造成严重伤亡。文章利用事件树分析法对宿舍楼可能发生的火灾事件进行分析,通过贝叶斯网络模型和烟气高度经验公式计算得到了宿舍楼火灾事件的概率函数。结果表明:在5个火灾场景中:火灾事件1和5发生概率的最大值最大,为99.8%和99.7%;火灾场景2发生概率的最大值最小,为0.13%。火灾事件发生的概率会随着火灾发生时间的增加而不断增加,最终趋于一个稳定值。As a densely populated place,there are many potential fire hazards in college dormitories,and rescue is difficult,and it is easy to cause serious casualties.In this paper,event tree analysis method is used to analyze the possible fire events in dormitory buildings.Through Bayesian network model and empirical formula of smoke height,the probability function of fire events in dormitory buildings is obtained.The results showed that:in the five fire scenarios,the maximum probability of fire events 1 and 5 is 99.8% and 99.7%;the maximum probability of fire event 2 is 0.13%.The probability of fire events will increase with the increase of fire occurrence time,and finally tend to a stable value.

关 键 词：宿舍楼火灾 事件树 贝叶斯网络模型 概率函数 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]