永州市火灾发生率与经济因素的时间相关性研究  

Research on the time correlation between the fire occurrence rate and economic factors in Yongzhou city

作　　者：徐恭喜 李楠 Xu Gongxi;Li Nan(Zunyi Municipal Fire and Rescue Brigade,Guizhou Zunyi 563000;Yongzhou Municipal Fire and Rescue Brigade,Hunan Yongzhou 425000)

机构地区：[1]遵义市消防救援支队,贵州遵义563000 [2]永州市消防救援支队,湖南永州425000

出　　处：《今日消防》2021年第12期17-19,共3页

摘　　要：基于永州市2012—2020年火灾统计数据,利用回归分析对火灾发生频率与经济因素的时间相关性进行研究。文章通过数据统计和绘制火灾发生率与人均GDP的关系曲线,发现在火灾统计数据的时间段上,永州市第一季度的火灾发生率较高,火灾发生率随每年人均GDP的增长呈现出"增-减-增"的"N"型曲线关系。根据数据拟合的结果,深入分析了导致这种现象的原因,并得到永州市的火灾发生率存在继续加剧趋势的结论。Based on the 2012—2020 fire statistics in Yongzhou City,regression analysis was used to study the time correlation between fire frequency and economic factors.Through data statistics and plotting the relationship curve between fire occurrence rate and GDP per capita,the paper found that the fire occurrence rate in the first quarter of Yongzhou City was relatively high,and fire occurrence rate presents an "increasedecrease-increase" "N" curve relationship with the annual GDP per capita growth.According to the results of data fitting,the reasons leading to this phenomenon are deeply analyzed,and the conclusion that the fire occurrence rate in Yongzhou City continues to increase.

关 键 词：永州市 火灾发生率 人均GDP 回归分析 

分 类 号：X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学]