2015—2019年中山市城区居民主要慢性病早死概率变化分析  

Analysis of the change of early death probability of major chronic diseases among residents in urban area,Zhongshan City from 2015 to 2019

作　　者：刘倩云 钟定威 马敏杰 李侠 林翠婷 梁雪琼 范木耿[2] LIU Qian-yun;ZHONG Ding-wei;MA Min-jie;LI Xia;LIN Cui-ting;LIANG Xue-qiong;FAN Mu-geng(Shiqi District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan,Zhongshan,Guangdong 528400,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中山市石岐区疾病预防控制中心,广东中山528400 [2]中山市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国公共卫生管理》2021年第6期803-806,共4页Chinese Journal of Public Health Management

基　　金：中山市科技计划项目(2021B1126)。

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2019年中山市城区30~69岁户籍居民恶性肿瘤、糖尿病、心脑血管疾病和慢性呼吸系统疾病四类主要慢性病死亡特征和早死概率的变化趋势,为本区域慢性病防控策略的制订提供参考依据。方法收集2015—2019年城区所有户籍居民的详细死亡信息,计算四类主要慢性病死亡率、死亡人员构成和早死概率,使用年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)对不同慢性病死亡率和早死概率进行五年间变化趋势的分析。结果 2015—2019年城区四类主要慢性病的标化死亡率APC为-3.38%,差异有统计学意义(t=-3.30,P<0.05)。2015—2019年,城区主要慢性病早死概率的发展趋势向下,APC为-2.58%,下降趋势有统计学意义(t=-5.91,P<0.05)。结论城区男性早死概率均高于女性,糖尿病早死概率增长迅速,应以社区为基础,加快慢性病防治示范区建设,针对重点人群和主要死因进行干预,努力实现城区"健康中国2030"的健康目标。Objective To analyze the trend of death characteristics and premature death probability of four major chronic diseases among residents aged 30~69 in the urban district of Zhongshan City from 2015 to 2019,and to provide references for the development of chronic disease prevention and control strategies in this region.Methods The mortality data of Shiqi District from 2015 to 2019 were collected,and the mortality rate,constituent ratio and premature death probability of four major chronic diseases were calculated.Annual change trend of mortality and premature death probability was analyzed by annual percentage change(APC).Results APC of the crude mortality rate of four major chronic diseases was-3.38%,and the trend was statistically significant(t=-3.30,P<0.05).APC of the standardized mortality rates from 2015 to 2019 was-2.58%,with statistically significant difference(t=-3.30,P<0.05).The early death probability of major chronic diseases showed a decreasing trend from 2015 to 2019,and the APC was-2.58%,with a statistically significant decreasing trend(t=-5.91,P<0.05).Conclusion The probability of premature death of males is higher than that of females,and the probability of premature death of diabetes is increasing rapidly.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the construction of demonstration area for chronic disease prevention and control based on community,and intervene for key groups and main causes of death,so as to achieve the health goal of"Healthy China 2030" in urban district.

关 键 词：死亡率 早死概率 慢性病综合防治社区 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]