我国能源生产、消费、储能现状及碳中和条件下变化趋势  

Current status and trends in energy production, consumption,and storage under carbon neutrality conditions in China

作　　者：张永生[1] 董舵 肖逸 汪涛[1] 王家伟[1] Yongsheng Zhang;Duo Dong;Yi Xiao;Tao Wang;Jiawei Wang(Key Laboratory of Power Station Energy Transfer Conversion and System,Ministry of Education,School of Energy Power and Mechanical Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,电站能量传递转化与系统教育部重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《科学通报》2021年第34期4466-4476,共11页Chinese Science Bulletin

摘　　要：碳达峰、碳中和是我国能源发展的重大需求和挑战.本文以实现碳中和为目标,基于统计数据分析了我国现有能源生产结构、电力装机、不同行业能源及电力消费等特点,进而讨论实现碳中和目标下的能源结构和我国未来电力系统结构调整面临的问题及瓶颈.主要结论包括:实现碳中和目标,风、光可再生装机将是现有火电装机的2倍左右,需要调整现有的能源生产和消费模式,并配置适当的储能容量;现有技术水平下,抽水蓄能、电化学储能、氢能具有竞争力,但抽水蓄能受限于地理环境,锂离子电池受限于锂资源,氢能燃料电池受限于铂资源,都有发展瓶颈;消纳可再生能源需要考虑多种储能技术储备,氢燃气轮机、氢冶炼等相对成熟的路线技术具有支撑今后大规模可再生能源消纳的潜在优势.分布式储热、压缩空气储能、非贵金属催化的氢燃料电池、钠/铅酸电池、液流电池、超级电容器及其他多种具有技术经济性、可实现大规模应用的储能技术也都具有良好的发展空间.Carbon peak and carbon neutrality are major demands and challenges in China’s energy development. This study analyzes the characteristics of China’s existing energy production structure, installed electric capacity, energy consumption, and electric consumption in different sectors based on statistical data to achieve carbon neutrality. Further, the energy structure for achieving carbon neutrality, as well as the problems and bottlenecks faced by China’s future electric system structure adjustment, is discussed.Energy production and consumption have been increasing since the 1990 s, due to China’s fast economic expansion, with coal dominating production and consumption. Renewable energy accounts for a modest percentage of overall energy production, but its installed capacity is rapidly growing. Particularly, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power are both at the highest global level;however, their proportion in the overall power generation is still low. Industrial energy consumption accounts for the largest percentage of total energy consumption, accounting for 65%–75%. Significantly,current industrial electricity consumption is consistent with the quantity of thermal power produced. Industrial production process technology can be optimized for energy consumption since peak and frequency modulation of thermal power generation is relatively convenient. Optimizing energy production and satisfying industrial energy consumption will be beneficial in the future adjustment of China’s power structure.The total energy consumption in China may not significantly change when carbon neutrality is achieved in 2060. The proportion of fossil fuels will be about 20%, whereas renewable energy about 70%. In addition, the installed capacity of wind and solar will be about twice the current existing fossil fuel-fired electricity to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus,adjusting the existing energy production and consumption model and configuring an appropriate energy storage capacity are crucial.An appropriate c

关 键 词：碳中和 能源生产消费 风电 太阳能发电 储能 氢能 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]