东亚冬季风指数的对比分析及其与中国冬季气候的关系  

Comparative Analysis of East Asian Winter Monsoon Index and Its Relationship with Winter Climate in China

作　　者：陈欢欢 张永莉 杨康权 张子旗 CHEN Huanhuan;ZHANG Yongli;YANG Kangquan;ZHANG Ziqi(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,成都610225 [2]四川省气象台/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2021年第4期91-99,共9页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42075019);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505702);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0102)。

摘　　要：利用1979~2018年ECMWF再分析资料和国家气候中心站点数据,对比分析10个东亚冬季风指数的气候倾向率、周期变化特征及相关关系,运用多变量经验正交函数分析东亚冬季风系统各成员要素的内在关联性,讨论各指数与中国冬季气温的关系。结果表明:近40a东亚冬季风强度呈缓慢的减弱趋势,存在准3a、准5a的周期变化,1983年、1985年和1995年为东亚冬季风活动异常强烈的年份;东亚冬季风同类指数之间的相关性好于不同类指数,季风系统各成员要素联系紧密、协同变化关系明显;东亚冬季风指数与中国东部地区冬季气温的相关性优于西部高原地区,各指数与西北地区冬季气温均呈显著负相关。Based on the reanalysis data of the European Centre and the station data of the National Climate Center from 1979 to 2018,10 East Asian winter monsoon indices were classified and the time series of each index were calculated.The intrinsic correlation of each member element of the East Asian winter monsoon system was analyzed by multivariate empirical orthogonal function,and the relation-ship between each index and winter temperature in China was discussed.The main conclusions are as follows:the intensity of East Asian winter monsoon attenuates slowly in the recent 40 years.and there are quasi-3a and quasi-5a periodic changes.1983,1985 and 1995 are the years with strong East Asian winter monsoon activity.The correlation between the similar indices of the East Asian winter moosoon is better than that between the different indices.The members of the East Asian winter monsoon system are significantly interrelated and syn-ergistic.The correlation between the East Asian winter monsoon index and the air temperature in eastern China is better than that in the western Plateau area,and each index is negatively correlated with winter temperature in northwest China.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风指数 时间序列 对比分析 经验正交函数分解 

分 类 号：P425.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]