荆州市一次短时大暴雨的预报预警初探  

Preliminary study on forecasting and warning of a short heavy rainstorm in Jingzhou city

作　　者：文海松 赵卓勋 张晶晶 魏凡 雷彦森 谭江红 WEN Hai-song;ZHAO Zhuo-xun;ZHANG Jing-jing;WEI Fan;LEI Yan-sen;TAN Jiang-hong(Jingzhou Meteorological Bureau,Jingzhou 434020,Hubei,China;Huangshi Meteorological Bureau,Huangshi 435000,Hubei,China;Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan 430000,China;Xiangyang Meteorological Bureau,Xiangyang 441021,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市气象局,湖北荆州434020 [2]黄石市气象局,湖北黄石435000 [3]武汉中心气象台,武汉430000 [4]襄阳市气象局,湖北襄阳441021

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2021年第24期63-69,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-048)。

摘　　要：利用实时高空、地面气象观测资料及欧洲ERA-interim再分析资料和雷达资料,对2017年6月9日早晨发生在湖北省荆州市1次局地大暴雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,此次短时大暴雨在有利的天气环流背景下产生,500 hPa小槽东移叠加鄂北低槽带动冷平流南下,荆州市处于大尺度梅雨锋云系中。大暴雨由2个对流风暴引起,前1个对流风暴为强降水超级单体风暴。降水过程中雷达回波后部不断触发新的对流单体生成,形成后向传播,利于大暴雨的发生。大暴雨发生前低空急流发展旺盛,探空图上为上干下湿的配置,对流有效位能预报显示能量在1000 J以上,EC细网格资料的预报为预报员短临预警提供参考。高层的强辐散对强降水贡献更大,强降水时段与整层强烈上升运动时段对应较好,强降水时水汽通道存在于边界层925 hPa。雷达资料的分析显示,9日预报产品显示5:00小时降水量最大为78 mm,此时可以考虑发出预警。风暴追踪信息显示,M2超级单体于5:15左右生成,生成时最大反射率强度在50 dBZ以上,垂直液态水含量由25 kg/m^(2)跃增到40 kg/m^(2)以上,冰雹指数及强冰雹指数均出现跃增,此时正是强降水开始阶段,雷达资料综合分析考虑此时若发出短时预警,提前量相对较大,准确性较高。Based on real-time high-altitude and surface meteorological data,ERA-interim reanalysis data and radar data from Eu⁃rope,a local heavy rain event occurred in Jingzhou city of Hubei province on the morning of June 9,2017 was analyzed.The results showed that the short-term heavy rain occurred under the favorable weather circulation background,500 hPa trough moved eastward and superimposed.The low trough in northern Hubei leaded the cold advection to the south,and Jingzhou city lied in the large scale Meiyu front cloud system.Heavy rainstorms were caused by two convective storms.The former convective storm was a super heavy rain storm.During the precipitation process,new convective elements were triggered at the back of radar echoes,forming backward propa⁃gation,which was conducive to the occurrence of heavy rain,Before the occurrence of heavy rain,the low-level jet developed vigor⁃ously,and the sounding map was composed of upper dry and lower wet,the convective effective potential energy was more than 1000 J,and the EC fine grid data was forecast.The strong divergence in the upper layer contributed more to the heavy precipitation,and the period of the heavy precipitation corresponded well to the period of the whole layer’s strong upward motion,and the water vapor chan⁃nel existed in the boundary layer 925 hPa during the heavy precipitation.The analysis of radar data showed that the maximum hourly precipitation was 78 mm at 5:00 on the 9th,and early warning can be considered at this time.Storm tracking information showed that M2 super-monomer was formed at about 5:15,the maximum reflectivity was above 50 dBZ,the vertical liquid water content increased from 25 kg/m^(2) to 40 kg/m^(2),hail index and strong hail index both appeared to jump.At this time,it was the beginning stage of heavy rainfall.Considering the comprehensive analysis of radar data,if short-term warning was issued at this time,the advance amount was relatively large and the accuracy was high.

关 键 词：大暴雨 超级单体 风暴追踪 短时预警 荆州市 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]