基于后果损失的科技成果转化风险评估研究  

Research on Risk Assessment of Scientific and Technological Achievements Transformation Based on Consequence Loss

作　　者：张兴旺[1] 陶煜[1] 史万里[1] Zhang Xingwang;Tao Yu;Shi Wanli(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618307 Sichuan China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院,院四川广汉618307

出　　处：《中国民航飞行学院学报》2022年第1期42-47,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目(2019YFG0301);中国民航飞行学院科研基金项目(J2019-039)。

摘　　要：针对风险评价过程中风险传导路径难以确定,风险叠加难以量化的问题,对风险所造成的后果损失进行聚类,构建了基于后果损失的科技成果转化项目风险评价指标体系,引入损失风险严酷度、损失风险发生可能度、损失风险度的概念,建立了基于损失后果风险度的评价模型,采用民航科技成果转化的案例进行了验证。结果表明,该模型能够有效分析风险影响因素的传导路径,并能解决风险叠加效应的量化问题,具有较强的操作性、实用性和通用性。In the process of risk assessment,the risk conduction path is difficult to be determined,and the risk superposition is difficult to quantify,clustering the consequences of risk,the project risk evaluation index system for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements based on the consequences of loss is constructed,the concept of severity and probability and risk degree about loss of risk are introduced.The evaluation model based on the risk degree of consequence loss is established,case study on the transformation of civil aviation scientific and technological achievements.The results show that the model can effectively analyze the conduction path of risk influencing factors,and can solve the problem of quantification of the superposition effect of risks.It has strong operability,practicability and generality.

关 键 词：科研管理 科技成果转化 后果损失 风险评估 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]