非正规就业对已婚女性个体生育意愿的影响——基于CHNS数据的研究  

Informal Employment s Effect on Married Women s Fertility Willingness:Empirical Research Based on CHNS Data

作　　者：李红阳 LI Hongyang(Post-Doctoral Research Center,China Orient Asset Management CO.LTD,Beijing 100033,China;Post-Doctoral Research Center,School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国东方资产管理公司博士后科研工作站,北京100033 [2]清华大学经济管理学院博士后科研流动站,北京100084

出　　处：《财经论丛》2022年第1期3-14,共12页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903135);中国博士后科学基金第69批面上项目(2021M693005)。

摘　　要：本文利用1997—2011年CHNS的非平衡面板数据,考察非正规就业对已婚女性个体生育意愿的影响。理论分析显示,较之正规就业,非正规就业引致的收入下降通过收入效应降低生育意愿,通过替代效应提高生育意愿。实证结果表明,非正规就业显著提高了已婚女性的生育意愿,替代效应占据主导地位。在克服内生性问题后,非正规就业使已婚女性愿意生育的孩子数量增加了0.465个。新《劳动合同法》的实施弱化了非正规就业对已婚女性生育意愿的正向影响。因此,政策制定者可通过鼓励灵活就业和完善相关劳动法律法规等方式调节非正规就业比例,以间接调控人口数量来破局老龄化问题。Based on the unbalanced panel data of CHNS from 1997 to 2011,this paper empirically investigates informal employment s effect on married women s individual fertility willingness by constructing the individual fertility willingness variable and using the counting model.Fertility willingness refers to the number of children under individual optimal fertility decision,that is,the number of children that individuals want to have if they were notrestricted by the one-child policy.Studies have confirmed that compared with those with formal employment,people with informal employment usually have a lower level of income,welfare security,cost of default and termination,and job stability.In addition,they also have difficulty in obtaining training related to vocational skills and re-employment.However,the income level,employment opportunities,the education level and women s family status are the important factors affecting the fertility willingness.According to Becker s family fertility decision-making model,compared with formal employment,the income decline caused by informal employment will reduce individuals fertility willingness through the income effect and improve individuals fertility willingness through the substitution effect.The income effect means that the income decrease caused by informal employment will increase the budget constraint and decrease the purchasing power,which makes the individual tend to have fewer children.The substitution effect means that the income decrease caused by informal employment will decrease the opportunity cost of having children,the need of inheriting family wealth and the social status through children s human capital,which makes the individual pay more attention to the number rather than the quality of the children,and as a result,the individual tends to have more children.According to the consistent conclusion from the previous literature,the increase of the income level will reduce the individual fertility willingness,and it can be inferred that informal employment will increas

关 键 词：非正规就业 泊松模型 生育意愿 劳动保护 

分 类 号：F247[经济管理—劳动经济]