几种典型模型在物种敏感度分布中的应用和差异分析  

APPLICATIONS AND DIFFERENCES ANALYSIS OF SEVERAL TYPICAL MODELS IN SPECIES SENSITIVITY DISTRIBUTION

作　　者：乔宇 闫振飞 冯承莲[1] 刘娜[1] 廖伟 洪亚军 刘大庆 白英臣[1] QIAO Yu;YAN Zhen-fei;FENG Cheng-lian;LIU Na;LIAO Wei;HONG Ya-jun;LIU Da-qing;BAI Ying-chen(State Key Laboratory of Environment Criteria and Risk Assessment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;Jiangxi Irrigation Experiment Central Station,Nanchang 330201,China)

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京100012 [2]江西省灌溉试验中心站,南昌330201

出　　处：《环境工程》2021年第10期85-92,109,共9页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41773085,41521003,41807400);江西省水力厅科技项目(201921YBKT29)。

摘　　要：模型的选择是物种敏感度分布拟合的关键。研究系统地介绍了物种敏感度分布法中常用的5种分布模型,即正态分布、对数正态分布、逻辑斯谛分布、对数逻辑斯谛分布和伯尔三参数分布的内涵、特点与适用性。分析了模型之间的差异性。研究不仅提出了物种敏感度分布拟合中模型筛选与拟合优度检验的方法,并且使用5种模型分别拟合出镉的物种敏感分布曲线,进一步讨论了模型之间的差异与选择依据。最后,提出了物种敏感度分布拟合中模型选择的一些建议。研究结果可为物种敏感度分布法的应用与水质基准的推导提供理论参考。The selection of models is the key to the species-sensitive distribution method. In this study, characteristics and applicability of five distribution models commonly used in the species-sensitive distribution methods were systematically introduced, which were normal distribution, log-normal distribution, logistic distribution, log-logistic distribution and Burr-Ⅲ distribution. The variability among the models was analyzed. This study not only proposed the methods of model screening and goodness-of-fit test in species sensitivity distribution fitting, but also fitted the species sensitivity distribution curves of cadmium using each one of the five models, and further discussed the differences between the models and the basis of selection. Finally, some suggestions for model selection in the fitting of species-sensitivity distribution were presented. This result could provide theoretical references for the application of the species-sensitivity distribution method and the derivation of water quality benchmarks.

关 键 词：分布模型 物种敏感度分布 拟合优度 水质基准 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X17