比较优势、技术选择与自生能力——中国酒店业“高增长低效益”之谜的新结构经济学解释  

Comparative Advantage, Technology Choice, and Viability: A New Structural Economics Explanation of the Mystery of “High Growth and Low Return” in China’s Hotel Industry

作　　者：罗浩[1] 陈仁[1] LUO Hao;CHEN Ren(School of Business,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2021年第12期13-25,共13页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“供给侧改革背景下因地制宜的旅游经济增长方式研究”(71874212)资助。

摘　　要：从"基层产业"的研究尺度,文章选择中国分省的酒店产业为对象,试图为新结构经济学的核心理论假说"比较优势、技术选择与自生能力"提供一个较为微观的实证检验,并为中国酒店业"高增长低效益"之谜提供合理的解释。研究构造了一个反映"技术选择是否遵循比较优势"的新指标"比较优势偏离度",作为核心解释变量;同时,以星级饭店平均利润率来表征自生能力,作为被解释变量,建立面板回归模型,作为计量分析的基础模型,并从3方面对基础模型进行稳健性检验:模型设定和估计方法的替换、被解释变量代理指标的替换、核心解释变量代理指标的替换。基础模型以及各种稳健性检验的结果一致地揭示出,比较优势偏离度对产业的自生能力存在非常显著的负向影响。以动态面板模型系统广义矩估计结果为标准,一个地区的比较优势偏离度每提高一倍,当地酒店业平均利润率预期下降4.45%。From the scale of“basic-level industry”, this paper selects the hotel industry in China’s provinces as the research object, and attempts to provide a more microscopic empirical test than before for the core theoretical hypothesis of New Structural Economics:“comparative advantage, technology choice, and viability”. The paper develops a new indicator DC, the degree of deviation from comparative advantage, as the core explanatory variable. At the same time, the average profitability of star-rated hotels is used to represent the viability and as the explained variable, then panel regression model is established as the basic econometric model. In addition, the paper also introduces some control variables that may affect the viability of the hotel industry: the level of economic growth, the level of tourism development, the level of tourism education and the ownership structure of the hotel industry;Moreover, considering that the viability of an industry may have dynamic lag, we will also introduce the explained variable with one-period lag as a control variable so as to establish a dynamic panel regression model. The robustness test of the basic model is carried out from three aspects: the replacement of model setting and estimation methods, the replacement of the proxy indicator of the explained variable, and of the core explanatory variable. The results of the basic model and various robustness tests consistently reveal that the DC has a very significant negative impact on the industry’s operating performance and viability. Using the system GMM estimation results of the dynamic panel model, the average profitability of the local hotel industry is expected to decrease by 4.49% when the DC is doubled in a region. This paper may have three marginal contributions to new structural economics. Firstly, it defines a new research scale“basic-level industry”with the smallest aggregation error under the limitation of unsatisfactory microscopic enterprise data, which make us can directly test the hypothesis of

关 键 词：比较优势偏离度 自生能力 基层产业 酒店业 新结构经济学 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]