旅游业、民航业和经济增长之间的动态关系——基于中国主要旅游城市的面板数据分析  

Dynamic Relationship between Civil Aviation, Tourism and Economic Growth:Based on Panel Data Analysis of Major Tourist Cities in China

作　　者：姬宸宇 张含宇[2] JI Chenyu;ZHANG Hanyu(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510000,China;Shenzhen Tourism College,Jinan University,Shenzhen 518053,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510000 [2]暨南大学深圳旅游学院,广东深圳518053

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2021年第12期40-53,共14页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：深圳市哲学社会科学规划项目“云计算背景下旅游业供应链管理创新模式研究——以深圳旅游业为例”(SZ2018B014);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“临时性产业集群知识溢出影响企业创新的实证研究”(19YJC630184)共同资助。

摘　　要：中国民航业发展正面临关键时期,协调旅游业和民航业的发展或将有助于民航业实现这一阶段的发展目标,帮助其发挥在全面建设社会主义现代化强国新征程中的基础性和先导性作用。文章使用中国主要旅游城市2003—2017年数据和面板向量自回归的方法,探索旅游业和经济增长以及民航业之间的关系。结果表明,在总体层面,存在民航业发展促进旅游业发展、旅游业发展进一步促进经济增长的关系,但将经济增长区分为城镇经济增长和农村经济增长、将旅游业发展区分为入境旅游和国内旅游后发现,首先,民航业发展促进了入境和国内旅游;其次,国内旅游和农村经济增长存在相互作用关系,但城镇地区只存在城镇经济增长对国内旅游的推动作用;最后,国内旅游发展对民航业存在较长期的或者间接的促进作用。研究结论表明,三者之间存在相互关联关系,考虑城乡差异和国内、入境旅游差异则有助于深入分析三者关系,从而得出更准确、更具有实践价值的结论。The development of the civil aviation industry in China currently finds itself at a critical stage. From 2015 to 2018, the domestic passenger market in that country provided the largest incremental increase globally in terms of number of passenger trips. By the mid-2020 s, China is predicted to displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market(defined as traffic to,from, and within a country). Coordinating the development of China’s tourism and civil aviation industry will help the country’s civil aviation achieve its development goals in that period.The present study employs data for major tourist cities in China for 2003 to 2017;it adopts the panel vector autoregression(PVAR) method to investigate the relationship among tourism, economic growth, and civil aviation with respect to three different perspectives: overall economic growth, urban economic growth, and rural economic growth. To ensure the estimating accuracy of the models, we distinguished between urban and rural economic growth. In China, there has long existed a significant difference in economic and environmental conditions between urban and rural areas. Empirical research into civil aviation and tourism in that country has indicated that the relationship among tourism, civil aviation, and economic growth would differ if the characteristics of its urban and rural areas were taken into account. The present study used the data from major tourist cities in China—rather than provincial panel data—to offer a novel perspective. In that way, we avoided the aggregation of airport data from core cities and remote areas(which have significant differences) to present an empirical analysis offering more accurate inferences. Previously, most research investigating the nexus between tourism and civil aviation has found that tourism and civil aviation may be subject to an endogenous problem of mutual causation. Accordingly, the present study selected the PVAR method, whereby all variables were treated as endogenous variables.At the overall

关 键 词：旅游业 民航业 经济增长 面板向量自回归 广义矩估计 

分 类 号：F59[经济管理—旅游管理]