基于全生命周期与组合模型的蒸汽辅助重力泄油产油量与可采储量预测  

Oil Production Rate and Recoverable Reserves Prediction of SAGD Process Based on Full Life Cycle and Combinatorial Model

作　　者：余洋[1] 刘尚奇[1] 刘洋[1] 梁光跃[1] 谢佳[2] YU Yang;LIU Shang-qi;LIU Yang;LIANG Guang-yue;XIE Jia(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing 100083, China;PetroChina Liaohe Oilfield Company, Panjin 124010, China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]中国石油辽河油田分公司,盘锦124010

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第36期15434-15439,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2016ZX05031)。

摘　　要：为了快速、准确地预测蒸汽辅助重力泄油(steam assisted gravity drain,SAGD)开发方式下的产油量及可采储量,及时完成方案优化与生产调控工作,通过广义翁氏模型、Rayleigh模型、Weibull模型、Hubbert模型、HCZ模型、Maxwell模型全生命周期模型进行预测研究,评估其适用性。基于SAGD不同开发阶段的产能计算公式,提出了SAGD分段产能公式回归预测模型,用其预测产油量及可采储量。为了提高预测精度,基于上述方法提出了组合预测模型。结果表明:通过组合预测模型计算出的可采储量为30.67×10^(4) m^(3),SAGD开采单元的采收率可达64.4%。全生命周期模型及SAGD分段产能公式回归预测模型可较好地应用于预测SAGD开发油藏的产油量及可采储量,方法简单实用,可操作性强,而组合预测模型可进一步提升对应的预测精度。In order to predict the oil production rate and recoverable reserves in reservoirs developed by steam assisted gravity drain(SAGD)process quickly and accurately,and complete the task of scheme optimization and production control on time,the full life cycle models,like generalized Weng's model,Rayleigh model,Weibull model,Hubbert model,HCZ model and Maxwell model were used to carry out corresponding predicting research,then their applicability were assessed.Considering the production capacity calculation formulas of SAGD at different stages of development process,a piecewise regression prediction model on the basis of production capacity formula was proposed to predict oil production rate and recoverable reserves.In order to improve the precision of prediction,the combinatorial prediction model was proposed based on above methods.The results show that the recoverable reserves calculated by combinatorial prediction model are 30.67×10^(4) m^(3),and the recovery factor of related SAGD pad could reach 64.4%,based on the example in this paper.It is concluded that the full-life cycle models and the piecewise regression prediction model on the basis of production capacity formula can be well applied to predict oil production rate and recoverable reserves in reservoirs developed by SAGD technique.These methods are quite simple,practical and feasible.The combinatorial prediction model can further improve the corresponding precision of prediction.

关 键 词：蒸汽辅助重力泄油(SAGD) 产油量 可采储量 全生命周期 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：TE331[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]