基于模糊聚类-关联规则的气象条件对交通阻断影响评估分析  

Impact Assessment and Analysis of Meteorological Conditions on Traffic Blocking Based on Fuzzy C-means-Association Rules

作　　者：崔海蓉 费金峰 田华[2] 周林义[3] CUI Hai-rong;FEI Jin-feng;TIAN Hua;ZHOU Lin-yi(School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081, China;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing 210009, China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [3]江苏省气象科学研究所,南京210009

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第36期15655-15660,共6页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国气象局公共气象服务中心项目(M2020029);江苏高校品牌专业建设工程资助项目(PPZY2015A072);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金(2019SJA0153)。

摘　　要：为减少因气象条件导致的交通阻断事件的发生,提高道路运行安全和效率,运用数据挖掘中的模糊C-均值聚类算法(fuzzy C-means,FCM)和关联规则(association rules,AR),构建了各气象因素对道路交通阻断影响的综合评估模型。基于华东地区2019年上报的公路交通阻断数据进行实证分析。结果表明:雾霾对华东地区道路交通阻断影响最为频繁且严重,第四季度尤为突出,夜间是雾霾阻断的高发时段;江苏和山东是受雾霾影响的主要省份,江苏省全年都要关注雾霾对道路阻断的影响;降雨(积水)引起的交通阻断主要发生在第二季度白天,且对浙江省影响最为严重,降雨(积水)产生的阻断时间也最长;降雪(积雪)对道路阻断影响集中在第一季度,地区分布上以山东省为主;此外,浙江省第三季度需重点关注台风对道路通行的影响。In order to reduce the occurrence of traffic blocking events caused by meteorological conditions and improve the safety and efficiency of road operation,the fuzzy C-means(FCM)clustering algorithm and association rules(AR)in data mining were used to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the influence of meteorological factors on road traffic blocking.The empirical analysis was based on the road traffic blocking data reported in East China in 2019.The results show that the impact of haze on road traffic blocking in East China is the most frequent and serious,especially in the fourth quarter.The most frequent time of haze blocking is at night.Jiangsu and Shandong are the main provinces affected by smog.Jiangsu Province pays attention to the impact of smog on road blocking throughout the year.The traffic blocking causes by rainfall mainly occurred in the daytime of the second quarter,and the impact on Zhejiang Province is the most serious,and the blocking time caused by rainfall was the most serious.The impact of snow on road blocking is concentrated in the first quarter,and the regional distribution is mainly in Shandong Province.In addition,Zhejiang Province in the third quarter needs to focus on the impact of typhoons on road traffic.

关 键 词：交通阻断 气象 数据挖掘 模糊C-均值聚类算法(FCM) 关联规则(AR) 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]