Research on intelligent judgment method of natural gas hydrate drilling risk  

作　　者：Haitao Li Zhaolong Ge Na Wei Wantong Sun Yao Zhang Jin Xue Lin Jiang Jun Pei Bing Liao Hongliang Cao Ruixu Zhang Shuangli Li Qixia Lu Jinyan Luo 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Coal Mine Disaster Dynamics and Control,Chongqing University,Chongqing,400030,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,610500,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Natural Gas Hydrate,Beijing,100027,China [4]Drilling Department of CNPC Offshore Engineering Company Limited,Tianjin,300451,China

出　　处：《Petroleum》2021年第4期439-450,共12页油气（英文）

基　　金：the National Key Research and Development Program(2019YFC0312300);the 111 Project(D21025);National Natural Science Foundation of China Item of China(U20B6005,51874252 and 5177041544);Scientific Research Starting Project of SWPU(2018QHZ007);Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation(PLN2021-02 and PLN2021-03);Found of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjing)(ZJW-2019-03).

摘　　要：There are many emergency risks in the process of natural gas hydrate(NGH)drilling.In order to ensure the safe and efficient exploitation of NGH,it is urgent to establish an intelligent judgment method for the risks in the process of NGH drilling.In this paper,the response relationship between monitoring parameters and risk categories of NGH while drilling is established.Based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP),the comprehensive weights of 10 risk monitoring parameters are obtained,including gas production,wellbore instability,hydrate ice barrier,drill string fracture,sticking,bit balling,drilling tool piercement,gas seepage,seabed subsidence and seabed landslide.Besides,the comprehensive judgment weight matrix is constructed,and the reasonable fluctuation range of monitoring parameters is formed.Thus,the intelligent judgment method of NGH drilling risk is established.The intelligent judgment and alarm of NGH drilling risks can be realized quickly and accurately by this method,namely,it can monitor the risks in the process of operation and guarantee the construction safety of NGH drilling.

关 键 词：Natural gas hydrate Monitoring parameter RISK Analytic hierarchy process Fuzzy judgement 

分 类 号：TE52[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]