中国研发产业对制造业的影响效应——基于投入产出表的数据分析  

The Impact of China’s R&D Industry on Manufacturing——data analysis based on input-output table

作　　者：郭淑芬 许佑江 GUO Shu-fen;XU You-jiang(Cooperative Innovation Center for Transition of Resource-based Economies,Shanxi University of Finance&Economic,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学资源型经济转型协同创新中心,山西太原030006

出　　处：《治理现代化研究》2022年第1期27-37,共11页Governance Modernization Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“新使命驱动下黄河流域创新生态系统的绿色转向与协同演化研究”(20BJY040);山西省哲社规划课题(重点(专项))“‘创新为上’若干问题大众化通俗化普及化解答”(2020ZZ014)。

摘　　要：产业链上下游因供求关系而产生关联效应,产业间因技术流动而产生溢出效应,研发产业因此对制造业形成了相应的影响效应。本文利用投入产出表数据及其模型分析中国研发产业对66个制造业与三大类要素密集型制造业的关联效应及溢出效应,研究发现:2002—2017年间整体上看,中国研发产业对制造业的前向关联效应呈增强趋势,制造业对研发产业的依赖程度逐渐提高;后向关联效应呈先增后减趋势,对各类研发原料制造业的需求出现饱和趋势;前向关联强于后向关联,供给推动作用强于需求拉动作用。分别来看,对汽车制造业产生的前向关联效应最强,对电子元器件及化学原料制造业产生的后向关联效应最强;对技术密集型制造业的前向影响效应最强,对资本密集型制造业的后向影响效应最强,对劳动密集型制造业的影响效应则较小且呈逐渐减弱趋势。从溢出效应看,产生的辐射溢出影响强于制约感应溢出,但始终低于社会平均水平。The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have correlation effects due to the relationship between supply and demand,and the spillover effect between industries due to technology flows.Therefore,the R&D industry has formed a corresponding effect on the manufacturing.This paper uses the input-output table data and its model to analyze the correlation and spillover effects of China’s R&D industry on 66 manufacturing and three types of factor-intensive manufacturing.The forward correlation effect of the manufacturing is increasing,and the manufacturing’s dependence on the R&D industry is gradually increasing;the backward correlation effect shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,and the demand for various R&D raw materials manufacturing is saturated;the forward correlation is strong.With regard to backward linkages,the driving role of supply is stronger than the driving role of demand.Looking at it separately,the forward correlation effect on the automobile manufacturing is the strongest,and the backward correlation effect on the electronic components and chemical raw material manufacturing is the strongest;the forward influence effect on the technologyintensive manufacturing is the strongest.The backward effect of capital-intensive manufacturing is the strongest,while its effect on labor-intensive manufacturing is smaller and gradually weakened.From the perspective of spillover effects,the radiation spillover effect produced is stronger than the control induced spillover,but it is always lower than the social average level.

关 键 词：研发产业 制造业 关联效应 溢出效应 投入产出表 

分 类 号：F406.3[经济管理—产业经济]