A method for emergency response alternative decision-making under uncertainty  

作　　者：Dengyou Xia Chengyao Li Jing Xin Yi Zhu 

机构地区：[1]School of Rescue and Command,China People’s Police University,Langfang,People’s Republic of China [2]Jincheng Fire and Rescue Detachment,Shanxi Province,People’s Republic of China [3]School of Overseas Security and Protection,China People’s Police University,Langfang,People’s Republic of China

出　　处：《Journal of Control and Decision》2021年第4期422-430,共9页控制与决策学报（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by National Social Science Fund of China[grant number 18BGL232].

摘　　要：In this paper,an emergency decision-making method,based on case-based reasoning and cloud model,is proposed to solve the risk decision-making problem in emergency response.Casebased reasoning,by allowing the decision-maker to referring to past decisions,introduces a short-cut to formulate feasible emergency alternatives.Cloud model is used to evaluate and optimise the emergency response alternatives.To evaluate emergency response alternatives,the decision criterion must be determined according to the aim and characteristics of emergency rescue in disasters or accidents.Then,the weight cloud and evaluation cloud of the decision criterion are determined by the Delphi method combined with backward cloud generator,and the synthesised cloud of each alternative is calculated through arithmetic rules of cloud.Finally,a ranking of all response alternatives can be determined,and the best alternative is selected.Case study shows that the method makes the conversion between qualitative description and quantitative indication more effective.

关 键 词：Emergency decision-making alternative evaluation cloud model uncertainty conversion optimisation 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]