基于ERGM模型的江苏省城市网络紧凑性形成机理研究  

Formation mechanism of network compactness in Jiangsu Province based on exponential random graph models

作　　者：韩刚 史修松 刘志敏 HAN Gang;SHI Xiusong;LIU Zhimin(Faculty of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Huaiyin Institute of Technology,Huai'an 223001,Jiangsu,China;North Jiangsu Development Academy,Huai'an 223001,Jiangsu,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]淮阴工学院建筑工程学院,江苏淮安223001 [2]苏北发展研究院,江苏淮安223001 [3]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2021年第12期2025-2034,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BJY001);江苏省社会科学基金项目(18EYC003);淮安市社科类研究课题(2021C39)~~。

摘　　要：城市网络紧凑性指区域紧凑在城市网络空间结构上的呈现形态,城市网络组织语境下,指各级城市在网络空间中的协同互补关系。为了探究此关系的影响因素,论文选取多元流网络拓扑结构中的节点和连接边属性指标,运用一级模糊综合评价法测算网络紧凑度,并构建网络紧凑度的空间关联图谱,引入指数随机图模型(exponential random graph model,ERGM)定量分析江苏省城市网络紧凑性的形成机理。研究发现,江苏省网络紧凑性具有显著的三角闭合结构,局部紧凑水平的提升并不依赖第三方城市的组织协调;网络紧凑性表现出较强的规模导向,经济规模越高的城市之间越倾向于形成紧凑关系;网络紧凑性的形成受益于多城市的空间集聚,但江苏省区域分割带来的要素流动限制,制约了城市间紧凑关系的建立,从而网络紧凑性在区域层面呈现出畸形集聚现象。Under the background of information technology progress, urban and regional research has begun the shift to the relationship between network organization function and structure, which is formed by the factor flows. Numerous studies indicate that it is feasible for urban network to simulate the urban region system relationships with the abstract pattern of regional structure. The networked urban region system serves as the precondition to explore the compactness of regions and provides a feasible quantitative research approach for the analysis of the compactness characteristic of regions and the mechanism. This research established the concept of network compactness, which means the manifestation of region compactness in the spatial structure of the urban network. In the context of urban network organization, it refers to the collaborative and complementary relationship among cities of all levels in the network space. With the purpose to explore the influencing factors of this relationship, empirical research was conducted by taking districts and county-level cities in Jiangsu Province as the research unit. The first-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to measure the compactness of the traffic flow, investment flow, and innovation flow networks, based on which the spatial correlation map of the network compactness was constructed. Taking these as the explained variables, the exponential random graph model was introduced to form an estimation model from four aspects(including network endogenous mechanism, optimization mechanism, proximity mechanism, and coordination mechanism)to quantitatively analyze the formation mechanism of the urban network compactness in Jiangsu Province. The study revealed that the network compactness of Jiangsu Province is of a significant closed triangular structure in which local clustering is conspicuous, and there is relatively significant local compactness, while the improvement of the compactness level does not depend on the organization or coordination of third-pa

关 键 词：城市网络 紧凑性 形成机理 指数随机图模型(ERGM) 江苏省 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]