人口老龄化对社会保障支出的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Population Aging on Social Security Expenditure in China

作　　者：程兰芳[1] 邓蔚 CHENG Lanfang;DENG Wei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2022年第1期1-8,共8页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“面向国家能源安全的智慧能源创新模式与政策协同机制研究”(19ZDA081)。

摘　　要：我国人口老龄化态势日益严峻,这必将成为社会保障支出增加的重要推手。文章利用2008—2018年省际面板数据,从老龄化程度、老龄化速度和社会负担三个角度测度人口老龄化,采用系统聚类方法将我国30个省份(不包括西藏和港澳台地区)划分为四类人口老龄化区域,借助固定效应模型深入剖析人口老龄化对社会保障支出水平的影响。研究表明:从全国和四类人口老龄化区域来看,老龄化程度均提升了财政社会保障支出水平和社会保障总支出水平,而老龄化速度则对社会保障支出水平的上升表现为阻碍作用;社会负担促进了全国和四类区域财政社会保障支出水平的提高,但由于各省份经济水平或政策措施的差异,对社会保障总支出水平的影响存在区域间的异质性。China's population aging situation is increasingly serious,which will surely become an important driving force of the increase in social security expenditure.Based on the inter provincial panel data from 2008 to 2018,this paper mea⁃sures the population aging from three perspectives:aging degree,aging rate,and social burden.Using the systematic clus⁃tering method,30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan)are divided into four categories of population aging regions,and the impact of population aging on the level of social security expenditure is deeply ana⁃lyzed with the help of the fixed effect model.The research shows that from the perspective of the whole country and four categories of aging regions,aging degree has improved the level of financial social security expenditure and the level of to⁃tal social security expenditure,while aging rate hinders the rise of social security expenditure;social burden promotes the improvement of the national and four categories of regional financial social security expenditure,but due to the differences in the economic level or policies and measures of each province,there is regional heterogeneity in its impact on the total social security expenditure.

关 键 词：老龄化程度 老龄化速度 社会负担 社会保障支出 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F810.453