内生性人口负增长经济影响的国际比较  

A Comparison of the Economic Implications of Endogenous Negative Population Growth

作　　者：陶涛[1] 郭亚隆 金光照 TAO Tao;GUO Yalong;JIN Guangzhao(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2022年第1期32-45,共14页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目:高质量发展视域下中国人口均衡发展的理论建构与多维测度研究(20&ZD173)。

摘　　要：由长期低生育率和老龄化导致的内生性人口负增长是未来人口发展的新趋势。这种崭新的人口现象改变了人口研究的宏观环境,也引发了人们对未来经济能否实现持续发展的普遍担忧。本文使用联合国2019年世界人口展望数据和世界银行数据,筛选出德国、俄罗斯、匈牙利、波黑、立陶宛、日本作为典型的人口负增长国家,以人口缩减比例作为人口负增长风险的度量指标,以各国持续时间最久的一次负增长时域作为考察范围,从国别队列视角和生命周期思想出发,利用同原点比较模型系统考察典型国家在人口负增长之后的经济增长、劳动参与率变化、固定资产变化和技术进步情况,探索人口负增长风险积累程度对社会经济的影响。结果发现:各典型国家的人口负增长无论持续时间长短、速度快慢,其经济在最长负增长时域内均尚未出现明显的衰退;人口负增长对劳动参与率的影响并不明显,各国劳动参与率整体上在稳定范围内波动;人口负增长对固定资本形成占GDP比重和技术进步的影响方向各异,尚未显示出统一规律。人口负增长对宏观经济指标的影响是多种效应的合力,不是单向度的,充满了不确定性和异质性。尽管国际经验如此,未来中国将在“未富先负”的背景下迎来“快负快老”,仍需要未雨绸缪,谨慎应对。Endogenous negative population growth caused by low fertility over a long period and population aging,is a new trend of population development,which has reshaped the macro conditions of population re⁃search and raised widespread concerns about the sustainability of future economic prosperity.Using the da⁃ta from World Population Prospects 2019,this study first selected representative countries that have experi⁃enced endogenous negative population growth.Then,in the perspective of country cohort and life cycle,we compared the socio-economic consequences of endogenous negative population growth in selected coun⁃tries with identical origin point model.We used the proportion of population decline as a measure of the risk of negative population growth,and explored the socio-economic impact of the accumulation of the risk of negative population growth.We find that,there has been no obvious economic recession in the countries with endogenous negative population growth during the longest-negative-growth-durations.The impact of negative population growth on labor participation rate is not obvious,and the labor participation rate of all countries fluctuates in a stable range as a whole.Negative population growth has no fixed influence on pro⁃portion of fixed capital formation in GDP and technological innovation among typical countries.The impact of negative population growth on socio-economic indicators is multidirectional rather than unidirectional.Despite that,China is expected to experience fast negative population growth and aging before affluence,which needs precautions and cautiousness.

关 键 词：内生性人口负增长 同原点比较 经济影响 国际比较 

分 类 号：C924.1[社会学—人口学]