20世纪50年代以来美国人口变化特征及其对中国的启示  

Characteristics of American Population Change since 1950s and Its Enlightenments to China

作　　者：陆杰华[1] 谷俞辰 LUJiehua;GUYuchen(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing,100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《人口学刊》2022年第1期46-57,共12页Population Journal

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目:实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略研究(20ZDA32)。

摘　　要：代表世界人口大国的中国和美国在2021年陆续发布2020年人口普查初步结果。最新人口普查数据显示:随着社会经济发展和民众人口观念的转变,两国在人口数量和结构特征层面呈现出一些共性特征。例如总和生育率低于替代水平与大规模老年群体叠加造成的结构性老龄化,区域发展不平衡与高度城市化共同带来的协调发展困境,整体劳动力市场萎缩与家庭内部经济支持的矛盾等。因此,基于国别人口学的研究视角,关注二战之后美国人口国情,研究美国人口各要素变化的特征及其趋势,为准确把握我国人口发展趋势、科学应对我国人口问题提供更加现实的研究依据和崭新的研究视角。本文基于20世纪50年代以来美国人口普查的相关数据,重点分析21世纪美国人口变化的新特征。一方面,从数量和结构两个维度出发,总结其在总量、年龄、性别、城乡、地区、族裔、劳动力、家庭等方面变迁的主要特征,并综合其人口动态变化与静态形势的发展特点,对未来美国人口变化的基本趋势做出一定预判。另一方面,参考美国应对相关人口问题的成功经验,提出我国可以通过引入海外人才,鼓励老年人再就业,政府和市场合作促进西部开发,发挥大都市区龙头作用,更好地应对我国目前面临或未来可能产生的人口问题。In 2021,China and the United States,representing the world’s most populous countries,successively released the initial results of the 2020 census.According to the latest census data,with the socio-economic development and the change of people’s population concept,the two countries show some common aspects in terms of population quantity and structural characteristics,such as structural aging caused by the superposition of lower total fertility rate and large-scale elderly groups,the dilemma of coordinated development caused by unbalanced regional development and high urbanization,the contradiction between the shrinkage of the overall labor market and the economic support within the family.Therefore,from the perspective of national demography,paying attention to the national conditions of the U.S.population after World War Ⅱ and studying the characteristics and trends of the changes of various elements of the U.S.population provide a more realistic research basis and a new research perspective for accurately grasping China’s population development trend and scientifically dealing with China’s population problems.Based on the relevant data of American Census since 1950 s,this paper focuses on the new characteristics of American population change since the 21 st century.On the one hand,starting from the two dimensions of quantity and structure,this paper summarizes the main characteristics of its changes in total amount,age,gender,urban and rural areas,regions,ethnicity,labor force and families,and makes a certain prediction of the basic trend of population change in the United States in the future by integrating the development characteristics of its population dynamic change and static situation.On the other hand,referring to the successful experience of the United States in dealing with relevant population problems,it is proposed that China can learn from and implement the population policy of introducing overseas talents,encouraging the reemployment of the elderly,government and market cooperation to p

关 键 词：美国人口普查 人口变化特征 国别人口学 

分 类 号：C924.712[社会学—人口学]