黑龙江省杂粮产业发展影响因素实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Development of Heilongjiang’s Coarse Cereal

作　　者：方哲 章磷[1] Fang Zhe;Zhang Lin(Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学,大庆163319

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2021年第6期122-128,共7页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：黑龙江省杂粮产业技术协同创新推广体系项目。

摘　　要：分析黑龙江省杂粮产业发展的各影响因素对产业发展的影响程度,明确杂粮产业的发展方向,提出切合杂粮产业发展的建议,促进黑龙江省杂粮产业的可持续发展。采用主成分回归分析的方法,构建黑龙江省杂粮产业影响因素的回归模型,分析选取的影响因素对杂粮产业发展的影响程度。结果表明:化肥使用量、杂粮播种面积、杂粮产量、城镇居民人均可支配收入以及农业投资额占社会总固定投资额的比例这五个影响因素对带动杂粮产业的发展有显著的带动作用,其余影响因素带动作用不明显,但依然影响杂粮产业发展。因此,提出建立杂粮生产基地,提高杂粮生产的投入水平,大力发展杂粮深加工以及特色产品,建立完善的流通体系,加大对杂粮生产的扶持力度等建议促进杂粮产业发展。This paper analyze the degree of influence of the various factors affecting the development of the cereal industry in Heilongjiang Province on the industrial development,clarify the development direction of the cereal industry,and put forward suggestions that fit the development of the cereal industry to promote the sustainable development of the cereal industry in Heilongjiang Province,which adopts the method of principal component regression analysis to construct a regression model of the influencing factors of the miscellaneous grain industry in Heilongjiang Province,and analyzes the degree of influence of the selected factors on the development of the miscellaneous grain industry.The results show that the five influencing factors:the amount of chemical fertilizers,the sown area of miscellaneous grains,the output of miscellaneous grains,the per capita disposable income of urban residents,and the proportion of agricultural investment in the total fixed investment of society have a significant leading role in driving the development of the miscellaneous grain industry.The leading role of the influencing factors is not obvious,but it still affects the development of the miscellaneous grain industry.Therefore,it is proposed to establish a coarse grain production base,increase the input level of coarse grain production,vigorously develop coarse grain deep processing and specialty products,establish a perfect circulation system,and increase support for coarse grain production to promote the development of the coarse grain industry.

关 键 词：杂粮产业 影响因素 主成分回归分析 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]