以成都市为例谈城镇住房建筑面积预测  

Taking Chengdu as an example to discuss the prediction of urban housing contruction area

作　　者：梁译 Liang Yi(Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,四川成都610000

出　　处：《山西建筑》2022年第1期183-185,共3页Shanxi Architecture

摘　　要：将成都市统计年鉴、北上广等一线城市统计年鉴以及成都市第七次人口普查等相关数据进行归纳总结,结合平均增长率算法、SPSS灰色预测模型以及MATLAB时间序列预测模型等多种预测方法进行预测分析。从量化预测的角度系统性地分别预测成都市2025年常住人口、城镇化率、人均住房建筑面积,根据相关发展规律增加相应增长率修正系数,得出2025年成都市城镇住房建筑面积预测值。以期能为成都市住房发展十四五规划,制定住房建设,住房保障等政策提供相关参考,引导供需平衡的住房市场建设。This paper summarizes the relevant data of Chengdu unified yearbook,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and other first-tier cities,as well as the seventh population census of Chengdu,and makes prediction analysis by means of average growth rate algorithm,SPSS grey prediction model and MATLAB time series prediction model.Firstly,the author systematically predicts the permanent population,urbanization rate and per capita housing area of Chengdu in 2025 from the perspective of quantitative prediction,and then increases the corresponding growth rate correction coefficient according to the relevant development law,and finally obtains the predicted value of urban housing area of Chengdu in 2025.The period can provide reference for the 14th Five-Year Plan of Chengdu housing development,the formulation of housing construction,housing security and other policies,and guide the balance of supply and demand housing market construction.

关 键 词：常住人口 城镇化率 人均住房建筑面积 城镇住房建筑面积 

分 类 号：F293.33[经济管理—国民经济]