基于SEIR模型的山西省新冠肺炎疫情特点分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of the COVID-19 in Shanxi Province Based on SEIR Model

作　　者：陈琳[1] 王凯华 CHEN Lin;WANG Kai-hua(School of Mathematical Science,Shanxi University,Taiyuan Shanxi,030006;Taiyuan Central Sub-branch of The People's Bank of China,Taiyuan Shanxi,030001)

机构地区：[1]山西大学数学科学学院,山西太原030006 [2]中国人民银行太原中心支行,山西太原030001

出　　处：《山西大同大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第6期40-45,共6页Journal of Shanxi Datong University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：太原工业学院青年科学基金[2017LQ07]。

摘　　要：目的通过建模分析山西省新冠肺炎疫情特点,评估疫情防控措施成效,为下一步疫情防控提供决策建议。方法对山西省新冠肺炎疫情数据进行描述性分析,并建立SEIR模型模拟疫情理论流行趋势,分析强防控措施产生的效果。结果山西省疫情发展呈现非常明显的本土病例阶段、境外输入病例阶段和境外零星输入病例阶段;在强防控措施影响下,本土新冠病毒传播链条基本被切断;通过SEIR模型模拟计算发现,在未切断疫情传播链条的情况下,疫情扩散速度对易感人群规模不敏感。结论强防控措施彻底扭转了疫情理论发展态势,也有效阻断了境外输入病例的扩散,确保了疫情防控效果。Objective To analyze the situation of COVID-19 in Shanxi Province through modeling,evaluate the effect of epi-demic prevention and control,and provide decision-making suggestions for the next step of epidemic prevention and control.Meth-ods The epidemic data of COVID-19 in Shanxi Province were analyzed,and SEIR model was established to simulate the trend of theoretical epidemic development,and the effects of strong prevention and control measures were analyzed.Results The epidemic development in Shanxi Province showed three stages:local cases,imported cases and sporadic imported cases.Under the influence of strong prevention and control measures,the transmission chain of the local COVID-19 has basically been cut off.Through SEIR model simulation calculations,it is found that the spread of the epidemic is not sensitive to the size of the susceptible population without cutting off the chain of epidemic transmission.Conclusion The strong prevention and control measures have completely re-versed the development trend of the epidemic theory and effectively blocked the spread of imported cases abroad,and ensured the ef-fectiveness of epidemic prevention and control.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 COVID-19 SEIR模型 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]