森林火灾风险性评估方法综述  

Review of Forest Fire Risk Assessment Methods

作　　者：王睿琛 张文文 龙腾腾 王秋华[1,2] WANG Ruichen;ZHANG Wenwen;LONG Tengteng;WANG Qiuhua(College of Civil Engineering, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China;Yunnan Key Laboratory of Forest Disaster Warning and Control, Kunming 650224, China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学土木工程学院,云南昆明650224 [2]云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,云南昆明650224

出　　处：《林业调查规划》2021年第6期44-47,54,共5页Forest Inventory and Planning

基　　金：云南省农业联合面上项目(2018FG001-055,2018FG001-059);云南省教育厅科学研究项目(2020Y0382,2019Y0145);大学生创新创业项目(202010677134).

摘　　要：对中国知网(CNKI)和Web of Science关于森林火灾风险评估的文献汇总、整理和归纳分析,国内外采用的森林火灾风险评估方法可概括为基于信息扩散理论的评估、基于通用风险评估模型的评估、基于林火预报的评估、基于林火蔓延模型的评估和基于GIS、RS的评估,对森林火灾风险性评估方法进行比较。结果表明,现有主流森林火灾风险评估方法以GIS、RS为主,其他一种或者几种方法为辅,综合评估、长期评估、联合评估以及定量精准评价,结果更具科学性和实用性,是未来研究的重点和方向。Based on the summary,sorting and analysis of forest fire risk assessment literature by CNKI and Web of Science,the forest fire risk assessment methods adopted at home and abroad were summarized as assessment based on information diffusion theory,general risk assessment model,forest fire forecast,forest fire spread model and GIS and RS.The methods of forest fire risk assessment were compared.The results showed that the existing mainstream forest fire risk assessment methods were mainly GIS and RS,supplemented by one or several other methods,and the results of comprehensive assessment,long-term assessment,joint assessment and quantitative accurate assessment were more scientific and practical,which were the focus and direction of future research.

关 键 词：森林火灾 风险性评估 GIS RS 信息扩散理论 林火预报 林火蔓延模型 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]