道路拥堵水平对公交行程时间可靠度的影响研究  

Impact of Road Congestion on the Reliability of Bus Travel Time

作　　者：白紫秀 李汝鉴 田一栋 孙煦 焦朋朋[1] BAI Zixiu;LI Rujian;TIAN Yidong;SUN Xu;JIAO Pengpeng(Beijing Laboratory of General Aviation Technology, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学通用航空技术北京实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《北京建筑大学学报》2021年第4期34-42,共9页Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52172301);北京市教委科研计划一般项目(KM202110016013)。

摘　　要：交通拥堵已经成为城市道路的新常态,拥堵的路况对地面公交运行产生很大的影响,增大了行程时间的不确定性。为了探究交通拥堵水平和公交行程时间可靠度的关系,选取交叉口饱和度、交叉口排队长度、路段饱和度、平均行程速度和平均停车次数5个道路拥堵评价指标,基于模糊数学理论构建道路拥堵综合评价模型,评价实际道路的拥堵水平。在此基础上,利用道路拥堵指数对BPR函数模型和交叉口延误模型进行修正,将行程看作道路单元的组合,建立基于道路拥堵水平的公交行程时间可靠度预测模型。通过实际道路调查数据,验证模型的可行性并计算不同拥堵水平下的公交行程时间可靠度。结果表明,拥堵水平与公交行程时间可靠度呈现负相关,满足二次函数关系,模型结果与实际相符。Traffic congestion has become the new normal on urban roads,and the congested road conditions have a significant impact on routine bus system,increasing the uncertainty of travel time.In order to explore the relationship between traffic congestion and bus travel time reliability,five road congestion evaluation indexes,including intersection saturation,intersection queue length,road saturation,average travel speed and average number of stops,are selected to construct a comprehensive road congestion evaluation model based on fuzzy mathematical theory to evaluate the congestion degree of the actual roads.On this basis,the road congestion index is used to modify the classical BPR function model and intersection delay model,and the bus route travel time reliability model based on road congestion level is established by taking the trip as the combination of multiple road units.Using road survey data,the feasibility of the model is verified and the bus travel time reliability is calculated for different congestion levels.The results show that the congestion level is negatively correlated with bus route travel time reliability,satisfying the quadratic function relationship,of which the model results are consistent with the reality.

关 键 词：道路拥堵评价指标 行程时间可靠度 拥堵判定 公交行程时间 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]