鄂尔多斯高原强降水天气环境参数阈值分析  

Threshold Analysis of Weather and Environment Parameters of Heavy Precipitation in Ordos Plateau

作　　者：许晶[1] 郑玉峰[1] 张连霞 项飞录[1] 苏日娜[1] 许彩琴 訾倩倩 王一鸣 贺小璐 XU Jing(Ordos Meteorological Bureau,Inner Mongolia,Ordos,Inner Mongolia 017010)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古鄂尔多斯市气象局,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017010

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2021年第9期54-55,共2页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

基　　金：2021年内蒙古自治区科技计划项目“黄河十大孔兑流域生态修复空间精准识别与智慧水土保持技术”(2021GG0052)。

摘　　要：利用Micaps资料、FY-2E逐时云顶亮温(TBB)资料、鄂尔多斯地区自动气象站资料和多普勒雷达资料,分析了2017—2020年鄂尔多斯地区强降水事件发生前和发生时的环境场特征。结果表明:短时强降水主要发生在15:00~17:00之间,以25%百分位作为建议预警最低阈值,鄂尔多斯短时强降水关键物理参数总体阈值为T850-500≥23℃、CAPE≥640.9 J/kg、CIN≥15.7 J/kg、暖云层厚度≥2.5 km、湿层厚度≥1.5 km、抬升指数(LI)≤-1.7℃。By using Micaps data, FY-2E hourly cloud top brightness temperature(TBB) data, automatic weather station data and Doppler radar data, the environmental field characteristics before and during heavy precipitation events in Ordos region from 2017 to 2020 were analyzed. The results show that short-term heavy rainfall mainly occurs between 15:00 and 17:00, with 25% percentile as the suggested minimum threshold. The overall threshold of key physical parameters of short-term heavy rainfall in Ordos is T850-500≥23 ℃, CAPE≥640.9 J/kg, CIN≥15.7 J/kg, warm cloud layer thickness ≥2.5 km,wet layer thickness≥1.5 km, the uplift index(Li) is≤-1.7 ℃.

关 键 词：短时强降水 集合箱线图 阈值 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]