Input database related uncertainty of Biome-BGCMuSo agroenvironmental model outputs  

作　　者：Nándor Fodor LászlóPásztor Brigitta Szabó Annamária Laborczi Klára Pokovai Dóra Hidy Roland Hollós Erzsébet Kristóf Anna Kis Laura Dobor AnikóKern Thomas Grünwald Zoltán Barcza 

机构地区：[1]Centre for Agricultural Research,Agricultural Institute,Martonvásár,Hungary [2]Centre for Agricultural Research,Institute for Soil Sciences,Budapest,Hungary [3]Department of Meteorology,Eötvös Loránd University,Budapest,Hungary [4]Faculty of Science-Excellence Center,Eötvös Loránd University,Martonvásár,Hungary [5]Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences,Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,Praha-Suchdol,Czech Republic [6]Department of Geophysics and Space Science,Eötvös Loránd University,Budapest,Hungary [7]Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology,Technische Universität Dresden,Tharandt,Germany

出　　处：《International Journal of Digital Earth》2021年第11期1582-1601,共20页国际数字地球学报（英文）

基　　金：supported by Széchenyi 2020 programme,the European Regional Development Fund‘Investing in your future’,the Hungarian Government:[grant number GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028];Hungarian Scientific Research Fund:[grant number FK-128709,K-129118];Advanced research supporting the forestry and wood-processing sector's adaptation to global change and the 4thindustrial revolution[grant number CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803]financed by Operational Programme Research,Development and Education;János Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences:[grant number BO/00088/18/4 and BO/00254/20/10].

摘　　要：Gridded model assessments require at least one climatic and one soil database for carrying out the simulations.There are several parallel soil and climate database development projects that provide sufficient,albeit considerably different,observation based input data for crop model based impact studies.The input database related uncertainty of the Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs was investigated using three and four different gridded climatic and soil databases,respectively covering an area of nearly 100.000 km2 with 1104 grid cells.Spatial,temporal,climate and soil database selection related variances were calculated and compared for four model outputs obtained from 30-year-long simulations.The choice of the input database introduced model output variability that was comparable to the variability the year-to-year change of the weather or the spatial heterogeneity of the soil causes.Input database selection could be a decisive factor in carbon sequestration related studies as the soil carbon stock change estimates may either suggest that the simulated ecosystem is a carbon sink or to the contrary a carbon source on the long run.Careful evaluation of the input database quality seems to be an inevitable and highly relevant step towards more realistic plant production and carbon balance simulations.

关 键 词：Input data gridded data soil parameters climatic parameters uncertainty propagation 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]