基于LSEIR模型定量评估广州市新冠疫情防控效果  

Quantitative Evaluation of the Public Health Interventions of COVID-19 Epidemic in Guangzhou based on LSEIR Model

作　　者：史晨 杨琳 钱俊[3] 罗雷[4] 欧春泉 Shi Chen;Yang Lin;Qian Jun(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Southern Medical University 510515,Guangzhou)

机构地区：[1]南方医科大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系,510515 [2]香港理工大学护理学院 [3]南方医科大学生物医学工程学院 [4]广州市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2021年第6期833-836,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81973140);广东省科技计划项目(2017A020219009)。

摘　　要：目的模拟并比较不同防控措施的干预效果,为新冠疫情防控措施的制定提供科学参考。方法考虑动态有效接触率及输入病例的影响,构建LSEIR模型,估计广州市新型冠状病毒传播的基本参数,评估不同干预措施对疫情的影响。结果截至2020年3月17日,广州共确诊354例,以输入病例为主。LSEIR模型R;为0.94。模拟估计广州综合防控效率约为94%,而若防控效率降低为80%、70%,疫情规模将扩大11.96%、24.73%。若杜绝发病者输入,疫情规模下降29.24%;若使发病者提前4天被发现,疫情规模下降15.83%。若采取综合防控措施的应急反应时间慢5天,疫情规模扩大29.01%;若快5天,疫情规模下降21.36%。若新冠疫苗接种率为30%、50%、70%时,本地疫情规模将分别下降37.85%、57.70%、76.24%。结论谨防输入,采取有力监控措施,缩短应急反应时间,提高综合防控效率是关键。新冠疫苗的研发和一定的人群接种率是防止新冠传播的最高效措施。Objective To simulate and compare the effects of different interventions and then provide scientific guidance for epidemic prevention and control.Methods The LSEIR model was constructed by considering the real time effective contact rate and imported cases.The basic parameters of COVID-19 in Guangzhou was estimated and the impact of different interventions was evaluated by LSEIR model.Results As of March 17,2020,there were 354 confirmed cases, mainly imported cases.The R;for LSEIR model is 0.94.The simulation estimated that the current efficiency of the existing interventions is about 94%.But if the efficiency is reduced to 80% and 70%,the epidemic scale will be expanded by 11.96% and 24.73%.If the imported infected are eliminated, the epidemic scale will drop by 29.24%.If the infected are detected 4 days earlier, the scale of the epidemic will drop by 15.83%.If the emergency response time is 5 days slower, the epidemic scale will be expanded by 29.01%,and 5 days faster will reduce the scale of the epidemic by 21.36%.The simulation showed that when the vaccination rates are 30%,50% and 70%,the scale of the epidemic will drop by 37.85%,57.70% and 76.24% respectively.Conclusion It is the key to beware of the imported cases, take effective monitoring measures, shorten the emergency response time and improve the efficiency of comprehensive prevention and control.The development of vaccines and a certain population vaccination rate are the most efficient measures to prevent the recurrence of the outbreak.

关 键 词：LSEIR模型 干预评估 新型冠状病毒疾病 

分 类 号：R184.6[医药卫生—流行病学]