舟山风力智能网格精细化订正释用技术  

Refined intelligent grid correction and interpretation technology for the wind field in Zhoushan area

作　　者：於敏佳 刘菡 李晓丽 YU Min-jia;LIU Han;LI Xiao-li(Zhoushan Meteorological Bureau,Zhoushan 316000 China)

机构地区：[1]舟山市气象局,浙江舟山316000

出　　处：《海洋预报》2021年第6期48-55,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：浙江省气象局一般项目(2020YB21)。

摘　　要：介绍了一种智能网格订正释用技术,该技术对EC细网格风力资料进行线性加密,对比其结果和站点平均风实况,采用逐时加权滚动更新的方法,利用站点平均风和极大风关系,进行订正释用。检验浙江省气象局指定的12个考核关键点0~6 h、0~12 h、0~24 h和0~48 h的平均极大风绝对误差分别为1.14 m/s、1.23 m/s、1.48 m/s和1.72 m/s。开发的舟山风力智能网格精细化订正释用平台对2020年台风“美莎克”的风力预报较为精准,4个县区局预报过程极大风力绝对误差平均仅为1.25 m/s,对9月11日小尺度低压风力预报的修正效果显著,嵊泗站点极大风力由9~10级修正到7级以下。An intelligent grid correction and interpretation technology is developed and applied in this paper based on the ECMWF gridded wind data and station observations.The ECMWF data is refined linearly and is compared with station observations.The correction and interpretation is conducted based on the hourly weighted rolling update method and the relation between the average wind and the maximum wind of the observations.The absolute error of 0~6 h,0~12 h,0~24 h,0~48 h average maximum wind forecasts for 12 key assessment points designated by the Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau is 1.14 m/s,1.23 m/s,1.48 m/s and 1.72 m/s,respec tively.Meanwhile,a refined intelligent grid correction and interpretation platform is developed for the wind fields near Zhoushan area,which produced accurate forecasts for the wind force of the typhoon“Maysak”in year 2020.The absolute error of the extreme wind force forecasted by four county bureaus is only 1.25 m/s on average.The correction effect is remarkable in forecasting the small scale low-pressure wind force on 11st September,and the maximum wind force level at Shengsi station was revised from 9~10 to below 7.

关 键 词：EC细网格 线性加密 平均风极大风 订正释用平台 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]