2000年以来中国冰冻天气评估研究  

Research on the Assessment of Freezing Weather in China Since 2000

作　　者：李坤玉[1] 赵鲁强[2] 王铸 LI Kunyu;ZHAO Luqiang;WANG Zhu

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2021年第6期520-524,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：科技部重点专项项目(2018YFC1505503).

摘　　要：为对中国区域的冰冻天气进行评估,利用2000—2019年国家级气象观测站的地面天气实况观测资料和20世纪70年代至90年代日平均气温观测资料,以出现冰冻天气的相邻国家级气象观测站作为冰冻事件判断依据,选用日平均气温、持续时间和影响范围3个评价指标,采用标准化加权求和方法,并引入百分位等级划分原则,构建出冰冻天气过程和单日冰冻天气评估模型。结果表明:冰冻天气评估模型能够有效评估冰冻天气过程和冰冻日影响程度,可为今后开展冰冻天气灾害防御提供科学依据。In order to evaluate the freezing weather in China,the data was obtained from surface weather observational files of National Meteorological Observation stations from 2000 to 2019 and mean daily temperature data of National Meteorological Observation stations from the 1970 s to the 1990 s.Observed record of freezing weather from adjacent National Meteorological Observation stations was used as the judgment basis for freezing weather events in current study.Mean daily temperature,duration time and impact area were chosen as evaluating indicators combined with the weighted summation method and grading method based on percentiles to construct the assessment model of freezing weather process and freezing weather in a single day.The results showed that the assessment model of freezing weather can effectively evaluate freezing weather process and influence degree of freezing day.The assessment model also may provide a scientific basis for preventing freezing weather disasters in the future.

关 键 词：冰冻天气 评估模型 等级划分 冰冻天气过程 冰冻日 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]