异质行为下新能源汽车的技术采纳与扩散  

Technology adoption and diffusion of new energy vehicle(NEV)under heterogeneous behaviors

作　　者：杜慧滨[1] 邹宏阳 张永杰[1] 赵倩倩[1] DU Hui-bin;ZOU Hong-yang;ZHANG Yong-jie;ZHAO Qian-qian(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2021年第12期62-76,共15页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71834004,72004159,71673198).

摘　　要：推广新能源汽车已成为各国政府防治大气污染、减缓气候变化的重要举措.近年来,新能源汽车补贴退坡明显,在一定程度降低了产业的发展速度.如何在后补贴时代推进新能源汽车的技术采纳与扩散,已成为保障产业持续发展的关键.本研究从异质行为视角,通过构建新能源汽车技术扩散模型,模拟了消费者受自身意识和外界信息传播影响的购买决策行为;并以天津市为例,探讨了信息传播范围和传播渠道对新能源汽车技术扩散的影响机制.研究结果表明,天津市新能源汽车私人购买量在2020年~2030年将以年均12.8%的速度增长,随后购买增速将逐步放缓;同时,由于受到负面信息的干扰,新能源汽车购买数量的饱和水平会随信息传播范围扩大而呈现出“微笑曲线”特征;在信息传播渠道方面,消费者在社交网络中的强联系更有利于新能源汽车购买数量达到较高饱和水平,而弱联系则对提高技术扩散的效率更为有效.根据信息传播范围和渠道的作用规律,本文最后从推进新能源汽车采纳的激励政策和企业营销策略两方面给出了具体建议.Promoting new energy vehicle(NEV)has been considered an effective way to prevent air pollution and mitigate elimate change.In recent vears,the decline of NEV subsidies has become increasingly apparent,potentially affecting the NEV development.Relving on information dissemination to promote technology diffusion in the post-subsidy phase becomes the key for the sustainable development of the NEV industry.From the perspective of heterogeneous behaviors,this study builds the NEV diffusion model to simulate the NEV purchasing decision of consumer agents under the impact of own consciousness and information dissemination.Taking Tianjin as an empirical case,the study explores the mpact of information dissemination scope and channel on NEV technology diffusion.The results show that the growth rate of the private NEVs in Tianin between 2020 and 2030 reaches 12.8%,and then becomes slower and slower.Under the influence of negative NEV information,the saturation level of NEVadopters will show a"smile"trend as the scope of information dissemination becomes larger.The strong lies in consumers'social network can lead to a high saturation level of NEV adopters.The weak lies have a higher efficieney for promoting technology diffusion of NEVs.According to the effect of informationdissemination,some specific suggestions on the incentive policies and companies'marketing strategies are given to promote NEV adoption.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 技术扩散 主体建模 信息传播 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] N945.13[自然科学总论—系统科学]