机场道面预防性养护评价指标综合改进灰色预测模型  

Comprehensive improvement of grey prediction model of airport pavement preventive maintenance evaluation index

作　　者：黄学林 王观虎[1] 龙小勇 陈正磊 李柯 陈奇奇 HUANG Xuelin;WANG Guanhu;LONG Xiaoyong;CHEN Zhenglei;LI Ke;CHEN Qiqi(School of Aeronautical Engineering,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710038,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学航空工程学院,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2021年第12期3228-3238,共11页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51578540)。

摘　　要：为了对军用机场水泥混凝土道面预防性养护评价指标进行精确预测,确定预防性养护最佳时机,构建适用于军用机场水泥混凝土道面的预防性养护评价指标综合改进灰色预测模型,分析军用机场水泥混凝土道面预防性养护评价指标体系的组成及含义。针对军用机场道面性能检测历史数据较少且不连续的问题,在适用性分析的基础上引入灰色预测模型。基于经典GM(1,1)模型及其存在的不足,采取原始数据检验及预处理、初始值及背景值同步改进、等维灰色递补等方式对经典GM(1,1)模型进行多步改进。建立道面预防性养护评价指标的综合改进灰色预测模型,对多步改进过程进行精度纵向对比检验,对综合改进预测模型与马尔科夫预测模型进行精度横向对比检验。研究结果表明:灰色预测模型适用于军用机场道面预防性养护评价指标的预测,综合改进灰色预测模型能够提高模型的预测精度。利用综合改进灰色预测模型对某军用机场道面的预防性养护评价指标进行预测,结合其预防性养护判定标准,得出该机场道面预防性养护的最佳时机为第6~9 a。A comprehensive improved grey prediction model suitable for the preventive maintenance evaluation index of the military airport cement concrete pavement was established in order to predict the index accurately and determine the best time for preventive maintenance. Its composition and meaning were analyzed. The grey prediction model was introduced on the basis of applicability analysis in order to solve the problem about the less and discontinuous historical data of the military airport pavement performance detection. The classical GM(1,1)model was improved by multiple steps through original data inspection and preprocessing, synchronous improvement of initial value and background value and equal dimension gray compensation on the basis of the model as well as its shortcomings. It was aimed to establish a comprehensive improved grey prediction model suitable for the preventive maintenance evaluation index of the military airport cement concrete pavement. The accuracy of the multi-step improvement process was compared longitudinally and the accuracy of the comprehensive improved grey prediction model was compared laterally with the Markov prediction model.According to the results, the comprehensive improved grey prediction model is suitable for the preventive maintenance evaluation index of the military airport cement concrete pavement and it improves the model prediction accuracy. The comprehensive improved grey prediction model is used to predict the preventive maintenance evaluation index of the cement concrete pavement of a military airport. It is combined with the judgment standard of preventive maintenance to draw that the best time for the preventive maintenance of the airport pavement is from the sixth to ninth year.

关 键 词：预防性养护评价指标 GM(1 1)模型 初始值及背景值同步改进 等维灰色递补 模型综合改进 

分 类 号：V351.11[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]