舰船往返拦截搜索发现概率计算公式的推导、检验和修正  

Derivation,Examination and Revision of Calculation Formula for Detection Probability of Ship Round-trip Interception Search

作　　者：张会[1] 王安 程健[1] 屈泽均 ZHANG Hui;WANG An;CHENG Jian;QU Zejun(Navy Submarine Academy of PLA,Qingdao 266199,China;School of Automation,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]海军潜艇学院,山东青岛266199 [2]青岛大学自动化学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《陆军工程大学学报》2022年第1期54-59,共6页Journal of Army Engineering University of PLA

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71701205);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M693939).

摘　　要：可靠的单舰船搜索效能解析计算方法,是舰船编队和多舰船协同搜索行动效能计算和方案优化的基础。本文建立了单舰船往返拦截搜索发现概率计算模型,给出了基于有效相对搜索区分析的发现概率计算方法,对发现概率近似计算公式进行推导并编制仿真计算程序对计算结果的可靠性进行检验,根据检验结果和进一步的理论分析对计算公式进行修正。仿真检验显示所给计算公式计算结果可靠,并可推广应用于更一般情形下的仿真概率计算。Reliable analytical calculation method of single ship search efficiency is the basis of the efficiency calculation and scheme optimization of ship formation and multi-ship cooperative search operation.The probability calculation model of single ship round-trip interception search was set up,and the detection probability calculation method based on the analysis of the relative effective search area was given.The approximate calculation formula for detection,probability was deduced,and the reliability of calculated results was checked by simulation calculation program.Then,according to the checked results and further analysis,correction of the calculation formula was made.The simulation results show that the formula is reliable and can be applied to more general simulation probability calculation.

关 键 词：拦截搜索 有效搜索区 发现概率 检验和修正 

分 类 号：E843[军事—战术学]