论技术进步对贸易模式和贸易利益的影响——一个不同于萨缪尔森的分析框架  

Influences of Technological Progress on Trade Pattern and Gains from Trade——An Analytical Framework Different from Samuelson’s

作　　者：蔡继明 陈臣 王勇 高宏[2] 王康 CAI Jiming;CHEN Chen;WANG Yong;GAO Hong;WANG Kang

机构地区：[1]清华大学社会科学学院 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所 [3]美国德州农工大学

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2021年第12期1-18,共18页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(16ZDA241);清华大学自主科研项目“中国特色社会主义政治经济学探索”(20165080065)。

摘　　要：本文通过对萨缪尔森有关中美贸易的李嘉图—穆勒模型与广义价值论分析框架的比较,认为中国具有比较优势部门的技术进步虽然会使中美两国共同受益,但中国的受益程度要大于美国;而中国具有比较劣势部门的技术进步虽然短期内会在增进中国贸易利益的同时使美国的贸易利益减少,但这种贸易利益的再分配完全是根据比较利益率均等原则公平竞争等价交换的结果,两国的实际人均收入与自给自足相比仍然是提高的,当这种持续的技术进步导致中美两国比较优势发生逆转时,新的自由贸易模式会使两国的实际人均收入再度提高,美国实际人均收入并不会受到"永久性"损失。按照广义价值论的分析,无论上述情况发生在哪个国家,也无论哪国贸易利益增加或减少,更无论是回到各国自给自足状态还是重启国际分工交换,都与贸易保护无关;一国贸易利益的减少,仅源于本国相关产业技术的相对落后,而非他国的技术进步。This paper compared Samuelson’s Ricardo-Mill Model with the analytical framework of the General Theory of Value for U. S.-China trade. It argues that the continuous technological progress of China’s export sector with comparative advantages can benefit both China and the U. S.,but benefits China more. Although China’s innovation in the import sector with comparative disadvantage may,in the short term,reduce real income per capita in the U. S. while increasing the real income per capita of China;the trade benefit redistribution is entirely the result of fair competition and equivalent exchange based on the principle of equal rate of comparative benefit. In this case,the real income per capita of both countries is still higher compared to autarky. In addition,when the direction of comparative advantage reverses for China and the U. S. due to the continuous technological progress of China,the new pattern of trade will improve the real income per capita of both countries again,and the real income per capita of the U. S. will not suffer any“permanent loss”. Based on the analysis of General Theory of Value,trade protection is irrelevant to which country the above situation would occur and which country’s trade benefits increase or decrease,and whether it is a reversion to autarky or a re-starting of the international division of labor and exchanges. The reduction of the trade benefits of a country can only be attributed to its own relative technological backwardness of the related industries and cannot be blamed on the technological progress of other countries.

关 键 词：技术进步 贸易模式 贸易利益 比较优势 广义价值论 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]