创新驱动还是投资驱动?——来自城市层面的证据  

Innovation-driven,or Investment-driven Economic Growth——Evidence Based on Urban Data

作　　者：刘熹微 邹克 郑云丹 LIU Xiwei;ZOU Ke;ZHENG Yundan(College of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410082,China;Key Laboratory of Sci-tech Finance,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510521,China;Business School,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,湖南长沙410082 [2]广东金融学院科技金融重点实验室,广东广州510521 [3]中山大学管理学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2022年第1期67-73,共7页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

基　　金：湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(21B0662);广东省科技计划项目(2017B030301010);长株潭国家自主创新示范区建设专项项目(CG-YB20211026);湖南省自科基金(2019JJ50593);湖南省社科基金(19JD61);湖南省教育厅课题(19C1763)。

摘　　要：基于2003-2016年282个城市的面板数据,运用分布滞后、交互效应与门槛效应模型,检验投资、创新对经济增长的影响。结果发现:投资与创新对经济增长的驱动效果不同,投资驱动效果是短期的,长期呈现明显负效应;创新驱动长期效应表现为正负交替特征;创新驱动经济增长依赖投资结构与技术积累的路径;创新驱动与投资驱动存在差异化的门槛效应,当创新水平超过阈值时才显著促进经济增长,而过度投资不利于经济增长。鉴于此,可通过优化投资结构、加大创新投入力度来促进经济高质量增长。Based on the data of 282 cities from 2003 to 2016,this paper empirically tests the impact of investment and innovation on economic growth by using Distributed Lag Model,Interaction Model and Threshold Effect Model.The research finding:investment and innovation have different driving effects on economic growth.The investment driven effect is short-term,and has obvious negative effect in the long run.The long-term effect of innovation drive show positive and negative alternation.Innovation driven economic growth will rely on the path of investment structure and technology accumulation.Only when the level of innovation exceeds the threshold then can innovation drive significantly promote economic growth;over-investment is not conducive to economic growth.Hence optimizing the investment structure and increasing investment in innovation to promote high-quality economic growth is possible.

关 键 词：创新驱动 投资驱动 经济增长 交互效应 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]