西北太平洋历史台风风场重建模型参数试验  

Sensitive Experiments on Reconstruction Model of Historical Typhoon Wind Field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

作　　者：孔莉莎 张秀芝[1] Kong Lisha;Zhang Xiuzhi(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2022年第1期56-68,共13页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51761135012);中国气象局2021年度气候研究开放实验室青年基金项目“浮标、海上平台海面风观测资料的质量控制及应用”;国家重点研发计划(2020YFA0608203)。

摘　　要：基于Yan Meng风场模型,使用中国近海浮标观测资料,对影响风场模拟的台风最大风速半径Rmax、压力分布常数B、粗糙度z03个参数进行估算试验,结果表明:台风中心最大风速V_(max)和台风所处纬度的组合方案对估算Rmax更合理;海面(浮标站)在z0=0.005 m,B=1.0时风速模拟效果较好。选取登陆闽北浙江、北上东海、西进南海、穿台湾岛进入台湾海峡的共19个台风过程进行模拟效果检验发现:当中央气象台发布的V_(max)<40 m·s^(-1)时,B=1.0,z0=0.005 m模拟的V_(max)接近发布的V_(max),非最强风速区的模拟风速与浮标站观测风速拟合较好,发布的V_(max)≥40 m·s^(-1)时,B=1.4,z0=0.005 m模拟的V_(max)接近发布的V_(max),非最强风速区的模拟风速在B=1.0,z0=0.005 m时更合理。基于该风场模型和参数估算方案,可重建西北太平洋历史台风风场。In order to reconstruct the historical typhoon wind field in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and calculate the maximum wind speed in 50 years of the Northwest Pacific Ocean,Yan Meng wind field model is used to simulate the wind field.There are 3 important parameters for wind field simulation in Yan Meng wind field model:The radius of maximum wind,pressure distribution constant B,and roughness z0.Therefore,it is necessary to test and reasonably optimize the value of the three parameters by measured data of the buoy stations during the typhoon in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.First,based on the JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)dataset,the relationship between the radius of maximum wind and its impact factors is discussed and four combinations scheme of calculating the radius of maximum wind are proposed,and then the best combination scheme is selected through the measured data.Second,the values of B and z0 are estimated with the observed wind speed of buoy stations during different typhoons.Finally,the simulation effect of the typhoon wind field at sea is evaluated with 19 typhoon processes,and the applicability of the model and estimation scheme of three parameters are verified.The results show that it is more reasonable to find the radius of maximum wind by combination scheme of V_(max)(the maximum wind speed of typhoon center)and the latitude of typhoon.In the parameter value test,the wind speed simulation effect of sea surface(buoy stations)is better given z0 being 0.005 m and B being 1.0,according to the absolute deviation between the simulated and the measured maximum wind speed at 10 buoy stations during 6 typhoons.Except for the parameter test,19 other typhoon processes landing in northern Fujian and Zhejiang,heading north to the East China Sea,moving west to the South China Sea,and crossing Taiwan Island into the Taiwan Strait are selected to test the simulation effect,which illustrates that when the V_(max) published by Central Meteorological Observatory is below40 m·s^(-1),the simulated V_(max) is close to t

关 键 词：台风 风场模型 参数试验 模拟验证 

分 类 号：P732.3[天文地球—海洋科学]