简析气象服务与水文服务的有效衔接  

Effective linkage between meteorological service and hydrological service for severe weather

作　　者：杜晓鹤[1,2] 孙高虎[1] DU Xiaohe;SUN Gaohu(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2021年第12期39-43,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909273)。

摘　　要：水文服务和气象服务都是防洪减灾非工程措施的重要环节。水文气象预测预报的准确度和预见期直接关系到防洪减灾的应急响应和重要决策。作为水文预测预报的输入,气象服务产品的质量很大程度成为水文预测预报的精度和预见期的不确定因素。在分析水文服务和气象服务各自特点的基础上,简要明确不同水文预测预报领域对气象服务产品,特别是定量降雨估算(QPE)和定量降雨预报(QPF)的特殊需求,指出了目前气象服务产品在针对水文服务需求方面尚存在的不足,对加强气象服务与水文服务的有效衔接进行了展望。Hydrological and meteorological services are every important parts of non-engineering measures for flood prevention and disaster mitigation.The accuracy and lead-time of hydro-meteorological forecast are directly related to the emergency response and important decision of flood risk reduction,prevention and preparedness.As an input to hydrological modeling,the quality of meteorological service products is the main uncertainty which impacts the accuracy of hydrological forecasting.On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of hydrological service and meteorological service,briefly identifies the different needs for meteorological service products to various targets,especially the unique demands on the quantitative precipitation estimate(QPE) and the quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF);analyzed the shortage of meteorological products targeting the requirements of hydrological service;initially discussed the future direction to strengthen the effective linkage between meteorological service and hydrological service.

关 键 词：气象服务 水文服务 定量降雨估算(QPE) 定量降雨预报(QPF) 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]