企业绿色技术创新不确定条件下碳达峰路径优化研究  

Path Optimization of Achieving Carbon Peak Under Uncertainty of Enterprise Green Technology Innovation

作　　者：邬龙[1] 迟远英[1] 王振宇[1] Wu Long;Chi Yuanying;Wang Zhenyu(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2022年第2期70-76,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：北京市教委社会科学计划面上项目“北京经济环境脱钩发展的驱动因素及政策治理机制研究--以PM2.5污染为例”(项目编号:SM201710005004);十三五国家科技部重点研发计划项目“重大综合灾害耦合实验和模拟技术与设备”(项目编号:2017YFC0803300)。

摘　　要：绿色技术创新是实现双碳目标的重要路径,企业对不同绿色技术的采纳和投资等行为影响了技术创新效应在减排目标实现中的贡献。本文构建了技术不确定发展下企业最优投资策略的期权博弈模型,分析企业最优投资时机和技术采纳的动态变化。分析表明:(1)绿色技术预期减排收益、不确定程度和投资成本影响企业投资时机,企业出于先于对手研发而占领市场的考量会使投资提前;(2)当收益率先到达两企业同时投资临界值时,两企业会对一项技术进行同时投资,否则企业为争当领导者会在更小的临界点进行投资;(3)企业面临一项成熟技术作为追随者和一项不确定性更高的新技术作为领导者的投资选择时,即使新技术当前收益低于成熟技术,当领导者价值函数值大于追随者价值函数时,企业会跳过成熟技术而率先选择新技术进行投资。Green technology innovation behavior of enterprises is one of the important paths to achieve emission reduction goals,enterprise’s behaviors such as green technology adoption and investment affect the contribution of technology innovation effect to the realization of emission reduction goals. An option game model of enterprise’s optimal investment strategy under technology uncertainty is constructed,analyzing the dynamic changes of optimal investment timing and adoption. The results show that:(1)The expected emission reduction earnings,uncertainty and investment cost of green technology affect the investment timing of enterprises. With the consideration that enterprises investing ahead of competitors could occupy the market will accelerate the investment behavior.(2)When the earnings process first reaches the critical value of simultaneous investment,the two enterprises will invest at the same time,otherwise the enterprise will invest at a smaller critical point in order to be a leader.(3)When an enterprise facing a choice between being a follower that invest in a mature technology and being a leader what invest in a new technology with higher uncertainty,even if the current earnings of adapting new technology is lower than the mature technology,when the value of the leader’s function is greater that that of follower. The enterprise will leapfrog the mature technology and adopt the new technology directly.

关 键 词：碳减排 绿色技术创新 企业行为 期权博弈模型 投资决策 预期收益 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济] F273.1