1960-2019年陕西省主要农作物气候适宜性时空分布规律  

Temporal and spatial distribution of climatic suitability of main crops in Shaanxi Province from 1960 to 2019

作　　者：陈倩 徐玉霞[1] 何文鑫 梁彩萍 廖欣 CHEN Qian;XU Yu-xia;HE Wen-xin;LIANG Cai-ping;LIAO Xin(Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室,陕西宝鸡721013

出　　处：《宝鸡文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2021年第4期61-68,75,共9页Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41071359);陕西省重点实验室项目(13JS011);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2015D057);陕西省重点学科自然地理学资助项目;陕西省社科界重大项目(2019C004);宝鸡文理学院创新科研项目(YJSCX19YB10,YJSCX20YB28);宝鸡文理学院重点项目(ZK2018009)。

摘　　要：目的了解近60 a(1960-2019年)全球变暖对陕西省主要农作物的气候适宜性分布的影响。方法基于陕西省10个地级市的气候数据(主要是温度和降水量),运用模糊数学方法和ArcGIS的空间分析技术,构建水温综合适宜度模型,分析近60 a来陕西省农作物生长发育的气候适宜度及其时空分布规律。结果(1)陕西省小麦、玉米气候适宜度均显著上升,有显著的纬向分布特点,从西南向东北逐渐降低;(2)小麦适宜性范围较广,关中、陕南气候均适宜小麦的种植;陕北地区适宜度值较低,不适宜小麦的生长。全省各地区抽穗开花期降水不足,是制约陕西省小麦生长的重要因素;(3)玉米气候适宜度(0.731~0.977)整体高于小麦(0.395~0.938),适宜种植的范围更广。关中地区的干旱会影响玉米生长;(4)随着全球气候变暖,小麦和玉米的气候适宜度值都有所增大,适宜种植范围有向陕北扩大的趋势。结论陕西省农作物气候适宜性时空分布规律受气候影响显著,小麦和玉米的气候适宜性范围随着全球变暖都有所增大。Purposes—To understand the impact of global warming in the past 60 years from 1960 to 2019 on the distribution of climate suitability of main crops in Shaanxi,China.Methods—On the basis of the climate data(majorly temperature and precipitation)of 10 prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi Province,a comprehensive suitability model of precipitation and temperature is built by using fuzzy mathematical methods and ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques.Then,this model was used to analyze the climate suitability and its spatial and temporal distribution of crop growth in Shaanxi Province in recent 60 years.Results—(1)The climatic suitability of wheat and corn has risen significantly,with significant zonal distribution characteristics,gradually decreasing from southwest to northeast in Shaanxi Province;(2)The range of wheat suitability is wide,and the climates of Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi are suitable for wheat planting;The suitability Isr value in northern Shaanxi is relatively low,which are not suitable for wheat growth.Insufficient precipitation during the heading-flowering period in all regions of the province is an important factor restricting the growth of wheat in Shaanxi Province;(3)The climatic suitability of corn(0.731~0.977)is higher than that of wheat(0.395~0.938),and the suitable planting range is wider.Drought in Guanzhong area will affect corn growth;(4)With the global warming,the climatic suitability Isr value of wheat and corn has increased,and the suitable planting area has a tendency to expand to northern Shaanxi.Conclusion—The temporal and spatial distribution of climatic suitability of crops in Shaanxi Province is significantly affected by climate,and the climatic suitability ranges of wheat and corn have increased with global warming.

关 键 词：模糊数学 气候适宜性 农作物 全球变暖 陕西省 

分 类 号：P96[天文地球—自然地理学] S162[农业科学—农业气象学]