中美竞争背景下日本的政策选择论析  

Discussion on Japan’s Policy Choice under the Background of Sino-US Competition

作　　者：陆伟[1] Lu Wei

机构地区：[1]同济大学政治与国际关系学院,上海200071

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2022年第1期102-124,I0004,共24页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“冷战后日本战略文化的转型与我国的对策研究”(编号:18BGJ049)。

摘　　要：日本的战略环境在很大程度上是由中美两大因素共同塑造的。中美战略竞争对日本产生了重大影响。基于化风险为机遇,进而实现利益最大化的目标,日本采取三方面的政策举措:补齐军事力量的短板,推进联盟安全体系的多元化;实施经济安保战略,重组供应链和确保技术优势;推行体现日本价值观的制度战略,谋求国际规则制定的主导权,以便乘机达成引导国际秩序重塑的方向,成为名副其实的一流大国的夙愿,表现出浓重的机会主义和实用主义色彩。但对日美联盟战略基轴地位的顽固坚守和对中美不对称依赖脆弱性结构的存在,决定了日本无法从根本上平衡自主与追随、依赖与"脱钩"、改革与"辅成"的三重矛盾,要想利用中美战略竞争提供的"空间"来实现上述政策目标并不容易。Japan’s strategic environment is primarily shaped by two big powers:China and the United States.The strategic competition between China and the United States has had a significant impact on Japan.Based on assessing Sino-US Competition and judging the favorable strategic space,Japan tries to turn risks into opportunities,and then takes three policy measures to maximize its national interests:Complement the shortboard of military power and promote the diversification of the alliance’s security system;Implement economic security strategies and restructure supply chains and ensure technological advantages;To fulfill the long-cherished wish guide the direction of reshaping the international order and become a veritable first-class power,Japan promotes an institutional strategy that reflects Japanese values,and seeks the dominance of international rule making.This measure shows an intense color of opportunism and pragmatism.However,the stubborn adherence to the strategic base position of the Japan-US alliance and the existence of the vulnerable structure of China-US asymmetry determines that Japan cannot fundamentally overcome the triple contradiction:to balance autonomy and follow,dependence and“decoupling”,reform and“kingmakers”.It is not easy for Japan to take advantage of the“space”leftby China-U.S.strategic competition to achieve its design of policy objectives.It is just wishful thinking.As the uncertainty of the U.S.-China game increases,the policies Japan pursued will face dilemmas.

关 键 词：中美竞争 联盟体系 经济安保 制度战略 中美日关系 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]