中国战国时期诸侯国的国内政治与对外战争  

Domestic Politics and External Wars of the Feudal States in the Warring States Period

作　　者：蒙克[1,2] 曾极麟 Meng Ke;Zeng Jilin

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学苏世民书院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第12期78-105,157,158,共30页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：国内政治是影响领导人发动对外战争的重要因素。主流的战争制度性解释认为,国内致胜联盟的约束使国家领导人的战争决策更为谨慎。然而,如果放下"现代民主偏见",放松将致胜联盟视为外生给定的理论假设,发动对外战争同样可以成为领导人主动调整致胜联盟的手段和契机。当致胜联盟的约束构成国内威胁时,领导人反而更可能发动对外战争。这一理论可用于解释中国战国时期的战争决策。通过创建这一时期主要诸侯国国内政治和对外战争情况的面板和配对数据集可发现:诸侯国发动对外战争数量越多,所进行的军事动员程度越高,其国君越能拔擢出身较低的宰相,从而重构致胜联盟。因此,诸侯国内由世袭贵族造成的统治危机越严重,其国君越可能发动对外战争,尤其是胜算较高的战争。这一发现发展了国际关系学中关于国际战争的国内政治根源的制度性解释,也为理解秦国统一这一重大历史转折提供了跨层次分析的新视角。How does domestic politics shape political leader’s decision to wage external war? Drawing on the selectorate theory, institutional explanations of war argue that leaders with larger winning coalition tend to be more selective about wars. This argument rests on the assumption that winning coalition is exogenously given and hence not subject to change. We relax this assumption,arguing that interstate warfare can be utilized by leaders to reshuffle the winning coalition and thus secure their power. It then follows that the threat posed by winning coalition can instead incentivize leaders to wage war abroad. To test this argument,we rely on original panel and dyadic datasets on domestic politics and international affairs of major states in China’s Warring States Period( 476-221 BC). The quantitative analysis shows that the greater number of interstate offensive wars and the higher degree of war mobilization is linked with the higher propensity of the ruler to reshuffle the winning coalition by appointing low-born chancellors. Therefore,feudal crisis caused by hereditary aristocrats increases the possibility of the ruler to wage external wars. By empirically supporting our cross-level theory of war,we advance,on the one hand,the institutional explanations of war that deal with the domestic origins of interstate warfare and,on the other hand,provide a new multi-level analytical perspective for understanding a major turning point in Chinese history,namely,the Qin’s unification of China.

关 键 词：国家间战争 制度性解释 致胜联盟 战国 秦国统一 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]