基于自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型的中国海洋科技创新与海洋产业结构转型升级、海洋经济发展协整分析  

Co-integration Analysis on China Marine Science and Technology Innovation,Transformation and Upgrading of Marine Industrial Structure and Marine Economic Development Based on ARDL Model

作　　者：王春娟 王琦 刘大海 王玺茜 Wang Chunjuan;Wang Qi;Liu Dahai;Wang Xiqian(The First Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Qingdao 266061,China;Institute of Marine Development,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;International College,Renmin University of China,Suzhou 215123,China;Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100172,China)

机构地区：[1]自然资源部第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东青岛266100 [3]中国人民大学国际学院,江苏苏州215123 [4]中国人民大学农业与农村发展研究院,北京100172

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2021年第24期136-142,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：自然资源部业务化项目“自然资源科技发展战略研究”(GW0321002);中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目“海岸带科学与综合管理重点实验室建设”(2021L08);国家创新调查制度建设基础性工作“海洋创新指数研究”(NTS201811)。

摘　　要：基于2004—2018年我国31个省份海洋相关数据,运用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)-误差修正(ECM)模型,分析海洋科技创新与海洋经济发展、海洋产业结构转型升级之间的长期均衡与短期动态关系,并结合格兰杰因果关系检验进行探讨。结果表明:海洋科技创新投入和产出的增加能够带来海洋生产总值的增加,海洋产业结构优化对海洋经济发展有正向推动作用,海洋经济发展也是海洋科技创新、海洋产业结构优化的格兰杰原因;而相比海洋科技创新投入,当前海洋科技创新产出对海洋产业结构转型升级以及海洋经济发展的作用相对较小。据此,提出贯彻海洋创新驱动发展战略、顶层设计结合市场资源配置、推进海洋科技创新对外开放进程、加快科技成果转化的同时兼顾海洋生态文明建设等政策建议。Based on the marine-related data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018, using the autoregression distribution lag(ARDL)-error correction(ECM) model, this paper analyzes the co-integration relationship between marine science and technology innovation, marine industry transformation and upgrading and marine economic development, and combined with Granger causality test to discuss. The results show that the increase of input and output of marine science and technology innovation can bring about the increase of marine gross product, the optimization of marine industrial structure has a positive effect on the development of marine economy, at the same time, marine economy is the Granger cause of marine science and technology innovation and the optimization of marine industrial structure;compared with the input of marine science and technology innovation, the current output of marine e science and technology innovation has a relatively small effect on the transformation and upgrading of marine industrial structure and the development of marine economy. Accordingly, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as implementing the strategy of driving marine innovation, speeding up the transformation of scientific and technological achievements and taking into account the construction of marine ecological civilization.

关 键 词：海洋科技创新 海洋产业转型升级 海洋经济 自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL) 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224