货币政策应该以支持经济增长为目标吗——基于包含内生增长的NK-DSGE模型  

Should Monetary Policy Aim to Support Economic Growth——A NK-DSGE Framework with Endogenous Growth

作　　者：陈利锋[1,2] 李晶晶[3] 张凯鑫 CHEN Li-feng;LI Jing-Jing;Zhang Kai-Xin(Party School of Guangdong Province)

机构地区：[1]中共广东省委党校马克思主义学院 [2]广东省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心广东省委党校基地 [3]中共广东省委党校

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第1期84-93,共10页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“深化放管服改革与发展软环境研究”(19ZDA110);海南省社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色自由贸易港探索过程中服务贸易开放模式及路径”(KNSK(ZD)19-106)。

摘　　要：通过构建包含内生增长的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,考察支持增长型货币政策对宏观经济产生的影响。动态模拟分析的结果显示,常规状态下,相比泰勒规则,支持增长型货币政策对宏观经济产生更大的动态效应。存在利率零下界时,支持增长型货币政策仍对产出和投资等实际宏观经济变量产生较大影响,但对通胀等名义变量的影响小于泰勒规则的影响。福利分析的结果表明:(1)常规状态下,支持增长型货币政策引致了更大的福利损失。存在利率零下界时,支持增长型货币政策引致的福利损失则相对较小。(2)与常规状态相比,存在利率零下界时,泰勒规则导致社会福利相对恶化,但支持增长型货币政策则实现了社会福利的改进。因此,无论是基于产出增长的角度还是基于提高福利水平的角度考虑,支持增长型货币政策并非不可取,其政策效果主要取决于现实经济环境。In this paper,we proposed a NK-DSGE model with endogenous growth,and investigated the macroeconomic impacts of pro-growth type monetary policy.The result of dynamic simulation analysis shows that,comparing with Taylor rule,the response of macroeconomic variables is much bigger when pro-growth type monetary policy implemented by central banks under conventional conditions.But when zero lower bound constraint,real macroeconomic variables,such as output and investment rise much higher than Taylor rule when central bank implements pro-growth type monetary policy,however,the impact on nominal variables such as inflation is less than that of Taylor rule.The results of welfare analysis argues that:(1)pro-growth type monetary policy leads to much more social welfare loss under conventional conditions,but this reversed when zero lower bound constraint.(2)compared with conventional conditions,social welfare deteriorates when interest rates hit the zero lower bound,but social welfare improves when central bank implements pro-growth type monetary policy.So pro-growth type monetary policy is not undesirable for output growth and welfare improvement,its effects will be determined by real economic conditions.

关 键 词：内生增长 支持增长型货币政策 社会福利 宏观经济效应 动态随机一般均衡 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]