阵风估算系统对河南省2018年春季大风的模拟  

Simulation of Spring Severe Wind of 2018 in Henan by Using the Wind Gust Estimate Method

作　　者：刘善峰 陆正奇 韩永翔[2] 李哲 梁允 LIU Shan-feng;LU Zheng-qi;HAN Yong-xiang;LI Zhe;LIANG Yun(Electric Power of Henan, Electric Power Research Institute, Zhengzhou 450000, China;Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,郑州450000 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,中国气象局气溶胶-云-降水重点开放实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第1期50-56,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41875176)。

摘　　要：通过对2018年3月15—16日河南省发生的一次春季大风的天气学分析,探讨了大风极值中心出现在豫北地区的原因。在此基础上,利用耦合了阵风估算(wind gust estimate,WGE)方法的天气研究和预报(weather research and forecasting,WRF)模式模拟了研究区风场的空间特征,评估了WRF和WRF-WGE对本次大风天气的模拟效果。结果表明:冷锋过境河南时正值白天,冷锋前后温度差很大,冷锋移速快是河南大风风速高于其他地区的主要原因,豫北地区因叠加了地形的“狭管效应”成为此次春季大风的核心区。WRF模式和WRF-WGE均对大风有一定的模拟能力,能够模拟出大风的时间、空间分布特征,但WRF模拟的最大风速值远低于观测值,而WRF-WGE模拟的最大风速值与观测更为匹配,其优势主要在于预报大于10 m/s以上的大风,表明WGE方法在中国大陆系统性大风的预报中有一定的适用性。By casting synoptic analysis on a springtime gust process in Henan Province from March 15th to 16th,2018,the reason why the wind speed center appeared in northern Henan was discussed.A weather research and forecasting(WRF)model coupled with wind gust estimate(WGE)method were used to simulate the spatial patterns of the wind field during the gust process.The simulation results of WRF and WRF-WGE were examined separately.The results show that Henan experiences a strong cold front during daytime.The temperature difference before and after the cold front is significant,and the moving speed of the front is fast,making the wind speed in Henan greater than the wind speed in other regions.Because of the“funnelling effect”in northern Henan,it becomes the core area of this gust process.WRF and WRF-WGE are both able to simulate the strong wind in the gust process,together with the temporal and spatial distributions.However,the maximum wind speed is severely underestimated by WRF,while the simulated wind speed of WRF-WGE matches better with the observation,especially when forecasting strong winds is over 10 m/s.It can be indicated by these results that the WGE method is applicable to the prediction of systematic gusts in inland China.

关 键 词：春季大风 狭管效应 冷锋过境 WRF模式 WGE方法 

分 类 号：P425[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]