城镇化对经济增长和碳排放的时变影响  

Time-varying Impact of Urbanization on Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions

作　　者：杨美成[1] YANG Mei-cheng(Jiangsu University of Science and Technology,Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212100,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学,江苏镇江212100

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2022年第1期3-8,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：江苏省社科基金项目(17XZB018)。

摘　　要：文章选取中国改革开放以来40多年的时间序列数据,构建时变参数向量自回归模型,实证研究了中国城镇化发展对经济增长和碳排放影响的时变特征。结果表明:中国城镇化发展可以产生正向的经济增长效应和碳排放效应,经济增长效应大于碳排放效应。无论是经济增长效应还是碳排放效应,随着时间推移均呈现出倒"U"型特征,改革开放初期的影响强度最低,经济高速增长时期的强度最大,经济增长新常态时期的强度有所下降。研究提出持续推进城镇化快速发展,大力发展大都市圈和城市群,通过转变城镇化发展模式增强城镇化的经济增长效应,通过推动经济结构转型和技术进步弱化城镇化的碳排放效应等政策建议,为经济增长和环境保护"双赢"的政策制定提供参考借鉴。Based on the time series data of more than 40 years since China’s reform and opening up,this paper employed a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to empirically study the time-varying characteristics of the impact of China’s urbanization development on economic growth and carbon emissions.The results show that China’s urbanization development can produce positive economic growth effect and carbon emission effect,and the economic growth effect is greater than the carbon emission effect.Both the economic growth effect and the carbon emission effect show an"inverted u-shape"as time goes on.The impact intensity in the early stage of reform and opening up is the lowest,the intensity in the period of high economic growth is the highest,and the intensity in the period of the new normal of economic growth declines somewhat.The paper put forward to advance the rapid development of urbanization,to develop the metropolis circle and the urban agglomeration,by changing the urbanization development pattern to enhance the economic growth effect of urbanization,promote economic structure transformation and technological progress to weaken the carbon emissions effect of urbanization policy suggestions,in order to provide a reference of achieving"win-win"for the economic growth and the environment protection policy.

关 键 词：城镇化 经济增长 碳排放 时变特征 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]